Super Typhoon (STY) "Ofel" (international name: Usagi) maintains its strength as it continues to endanger the Cagayan Valley Region, according to an 11 a.m. advisory of PAGASA on Thursday, November 14, 2024.
As of 10 a.m., the center of the eye of #OfelPH was estimated based on all available data including those from Baler and Daet Weather Surveillance Radars over the coastal waters of Divilacan, Isabela (17.5°N, 122.7°E).
• Intensity
Maximum sustained winds of 185 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 230 km/h, and central pressure of 935 hPa
• Present Movement
West northwestward at 15 km/h
• Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds
Strong to typhoon-force winds extend outwards up to 320 km from the center
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT
TCWS No. 5
• Wind threat: Typhoon-force winds
• Warning lead time: 12 hours
• Range of wind speeds: 185 km/h (Beaufort 12)
• Potential impacts of winds: Extreme threat to life and property
LUZON:
The northeastern portion of mainland Cagayan (Santa Ana, Gonzaga)
TCWS No. 4
• Wind threat:Typhoon-force winds
• Warning lead time: 12 hours
• Range of wind speeds: 118 to 184 km/h (Beaufort 12)
• Potential impacts of winds: Significant to severe threat to life and property
LUZON:
Babuyan Islands, the northern and eastern portions of mainland Cagayan (Santa Teresita, Ballesteros, Aparri, Camalaniugan, Buguey, Lal-Lo, Allacapan, Gattaran, Baggao, Peñablanca) and the northeastern portion of Isabela (Maconacon, Divilacan, Palanan)
TCWS No. 3
• Wind threat: Storm-force winds
• Warning lead time: 18 hours
• Range of wind speeds: 89 to 117 km/h (Beaufort 10 to 11)
• Potential impacts of winds: Moderate to significant threat to life and property
LUZON:
Batanes, the rest of Cagayan, the northern, central, and southeastern portions of Isabela (San Pablo, Delfin Albano, Ilagan City, Tumauini, Cabagan, Santa Maria, Santo Tomas, San Mariano, Dinapigue), the northern portion of Apayao (Flora, Santa Marcela, Luna, Pudtol, Calanasan, Kabugao), and the northern portion of Ilocos Norte (Pagudpud, Adams, Dumalneg)
TCWS No. 2
• Wind threat: Gale-force winds
• Warning lead time: 24 hours
• Range of wind speeds: 62 to 88 km/h (Beaufort 8 to 9)
• Potential impacts of winds: Minor to moderate threat to life and property
LUZON:
The western and southern portions of Isabela (Quezon, Quirino, Mallig, San Manuel, Aurora, Cabatuan, City of Cauayan, Benito Soliven, Naguilian, Gamu, Burgos, Reina Mercedes, Luna, Roxas, Angadanan, Alicia, San Guillermo, Echague, Jones, San Agustin, San Mateo, San Isidro), the northeastern portion of Quirino (Maddela), the rest of Apayao, Kalinga, the northeastern portion of Abra (Tineg, Lacub, Malibcong, Lagayan, San Juan, Lagangilang, Licuan-Baay, Daguioman), the eastern portion of Mountain Province (Paracelis), the eastern portion of Ifugao (Alfonso Lista), the rest of Ilocos Norte, and the northern portion of Aurora (Dilasag)
TCWS No. 1
• Wind threat: Strong winds
• Warning lead time: 36 hours
• Range of wind speeds: 39 to 61 km/h (Beaufort 6 to 7)
• Potential impacts of winds: Minimal to minor threat to life and property
LUZON:
The rest of Isabela, the rest of Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, the rest of Mountain Province, the rest of Ifugao, the rest of Abra, the northern portion of Benguet (Bokod, Mankayan, Kapangan, Atok, Kabayan, Kibungan, Bakun, Buguias, Tublay), Ilocos Sur, the northern portion of La Union (Luna, Sudipen, Bangar, Santol, San Gabriel, Bagulin, Bacnotan, Balaoan, San Juan), and the northern and central portions of Aurora (Casiguran, Dinalungan, Dipaculao, Maria Aurora, Baler, San Luis)
OTHER HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
○ Heavy Rainfall Outlook
Refer to Weather Advisory No. 30 issued at 11 a.m. on November 14, 2024 for the heavy rainfall outlook due to #OfelPH.
○ Severe Winds
The wind signals warn the public of the general wind threat over an area due to the tropical cyclone. Local winds may be slightly stronger/enhanced in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds. Winds are less strong in areas sheltered from the prevailing wind direction.
• Extreme impacts from typhoon-force winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 5.
• Significant to severe impacts from typhoon-force winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 4.
• Moderate to significant impacts from storm-force winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No 3.
• Minor to moderate impacts from gale-force winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 2.
• Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 1.
○ Coastal Inundation
There is a moderate to high risk of life-threatening storm surge with peak heights reaching 1.0 to 3.0 m in the next 48 hours over the low-lying or exposed coastal localities of Batanes, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Isabela, and northern Aurora. Refer to Storm Surge Warning No. 8 issued at 8 a.m. on November 14, 2024 for the details.
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
A Gale Warning is hoisted over the northern and eastern seaboards of Northern Luzon and the eastern seaboard of Central Luzon. Refer to Gale Warning No. 3 issued at 5 a.m. on November 14, 2024 for more details.
○ 24-Hour Sea Condition Outlook
Up to very rough or high seas over the following coastal waters:
• Up to 12.0 m: The seaboard of Cagayan including Babuyan Islands
• Up to 8.0 m: The seaboards of Isabela and Batanes
• Up to 6.0 m: The northern seaboard of Ilocos Norte
• Sea travel is risky for all types or tonnage of vessels. All mariners must remain in port or, if underway, seek shelter or safe harbor as soon as possible until winds and waves subside.
Up to rough seas over the following coastal waters:
• Up to 4.0 m: The seaboard of northern Aurora
• Up to 3.0 m: The remaining seaboard of Aurora and Ilocos Norte, the seaboard of northern mainland Quezon, the northern and eastern seaboard of Polillo Islands.
• Mariners of small seacrafts, including all types of motorbancas, are advised not to venture out to sea under these conditions, especially if inexperienced or operating ill-equipped vessels.
Up to moderate seas over the following coastal waters:
• Up to 2.5 m: The seaboard of Camarines Norte and Ilocos Sur, the northern seaboard of Camarines Sur; the northern and eastern seaboards of Catanduanes
• Up to 2.0 m: The eastern seaboard of mainland Quezon, Camarines Sur, Albay, Sorsogon, and Eastern Samar; the remaining seaboard of Catanduanes; the northern and eastern seaboards of Northern Samar.
• Mariners of motorbancas and similarly-sized vessels are advised to take precautionary measures while venturing out to sea and, if possible, avoid navigation under these conditions.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
• #OfelPH is forecast to move northwestward over the Philippine Sea before making landfall along the eastern coast of Cagayan this afternoon. It will then emerge over Babuyan Channel tonight while making another landfall or passing close to Babuyan Islands. #OfelPH will then turn north northwestward to north northeastward over the sea west of Batanes on Friday, November 15, 2024 before turning northeastward beginning Saturday, November 16, 2024 over the sea east of Taiwan towards Ryukyu Islands by the remaining forecast period.
• Regardless of the position of the landfall point, it must be emphasized that hazards on land and coastal waters may still be experienced in areas outside the landfall point and the forecast confidence cone. Furthermore, the track may still shift within the limit of the forecast confidence cone.
• A weakening trend is expected for much of the forecast period due to increasing interaction with the landmass of Luzon and Taiwan, as well as the increasingly unfavorable environment over the Luzon Strait and the sea east of Taiwan. However, landfall over Cagayan at or near super typhoon intensity is likely.
"Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property," DOST-PAGASA advisory further said.
