Tropical Depression “Carina” intensifies into a storm.
State weather bureau PAGASA issued Tropical Cyclone Bulletin Number 4 on Tropical Storm Carina (#CarinaPH), given the international name "Gaemi," at 5 p.m. on July 20, 2024.
Location of Center (as of 4 p.m.):
The center of TS Carina was estimated based on all available data at 630 km East of Casiguran, Aurora (15.8°N, 128.0°E).
Intensity:
Maximum sustained winds of 65 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 80 km/h, and central pressure of 1002 hPa
Present Movement:
West northwestward at 15 km/h
Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds:
Strong to gale-force winds extend outwards up to 250 km from the center
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT
No Wind Signal hoisted at this time.
OTHER HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Heavy Rainfall Outlook
Heavy rainfall directly caused by #CarinaPH remains less likely over next three days. However, there may be changes in the current forecast scenario in the succeeding bulletins, which may affect the heavy rainfall outlook within the forecast period.
The Southwest Monsoon that will be enhanced by #CarinaPH and tropical depression (formerly Butchoy) will bring moderate to heavy rains over the western portion of Luzon over the next three days. For more information, refer to Weather Advisory No. 21 issued at 11 a.m. on July 20, 2024.
Severe Winds
Based on the latest forecast scenario, the hoisting of Wind Signal No. 1 over Extreme Northern Luzon and the eastern portion of Northern Luzon is not ruled out.
The Southwest Monsoon that will be enhanced by #CarinaPH and Tropical Depression (formerly Butchoy) will bring gusty conditions over the following areas (especially in coastal and upland areas exposed to winds):
• Today and tomorrow (21 July): Kalayaan Islands
• Monday (22 July): CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, Western Visayas, Zambales, Bataan, and Metro Manila.
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
#CarinaPH and the Southwest Monsoon will bring moderate seas (1.0-2.0 m) over the coastal waters along the eastern seaboard of the country. Mariners of motor bancas and similarly-sized vessels are advised to take precautionary measures while venturing out to sea.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
• #CarinaPH is forecast to move generally northwestward until tomorrow while gradually decelerating. It is then forecast to turn generally northward on Monday before accelerating northward or north northwestward over the Philippine Sea towards the Ryukyu archipelago from Tuesday (23 July) onwards. In general, #CarinaPH will generally have a mainly offshore path over the next five days and remain far from the Philippine landmass.
• #CarinaPH is forecast to steadily intensify and reach severe tropical storm by Monday. Beginning on Monday, the tropical cyclone will likely intensify further at a faster rate, eventually reaching typhoon category on Tuesday. The possibility of rapid intensification within this period is not ruled out.
Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.
The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 11 p.m. today, July 20, 2024.
(Info courtesy: DOST-PAGASA)
