260 cities and towns placed on PNP's election watch list

The Philippine National Police has classified at least 260 cities and municipalities of as “election watch list areas” for the coming May 9 polls. The figure represents data gathered from only 10 regions. 

The PNP defines EWAs as areas with intense political rivalry, private armed groups, armed organizations such as the CPP/NPA or where violence has occurred in the past elections. 

A study by GMA News Research reveals that more than half of these EWAs —165 or 63 percent—have been on the PNP watch list in at least one election since 2001.

Majority of these places have a voter turnout higher than the national average in the 2013 elections.  

An official of the National Citizens Movement for Free Elections (Namfrel) noted that the high turnout may be an indication of a higher level of interest in the polls, driven by a variety of factors. 

“This could be a reflection of intense competition and campaigning in those places,” said Namfrel spokesperson Eric Alvia. The voters, he said, may be under duress to participate. 

“This is what we may call the ‘hakot’ crowd,” Alvia said. 

GMA News Research data of the 260 EWAs are based on PNP data from Regions 1, 3, 4A, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, Cordillera Administrative Region and the National Capital Region.

Data from these regions already cover more than half of the cities and municipalities nationwide. 

Of the 260 EWAs, 174 or 67 percent have a voter turnout higher than the national average in the last elections. 

The national turnout in the 2013 polls was 77.31 percent. 

Vote buying 

Seven provinces with areas on the PNP watch list had cases of vote buying in 2013: Abra, Aurora, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Pangasinan, Rizal and Zamboanga Sibugay.

The Namfrel report on the 2013 national, local and ARMM elections identified 12 provinces and the cities of Manila and Malabon as areas with reported incidents of vote buying. 

Turnout in Comelec-controlled EWAs 

During election season, the Comelec may place certain areas under its direct supervision when it finds serious armed threats owing to a history of intense political rivalry, violence caused by private armed groups, proliferation of loose firearms or serious armed threats from armed organizations such as the New People’s Army. 

In areas placed under its control, the Comelec has control and supervision over all government officials and employees performing election-related duties and all law enforcement agencies and military forces deployed in the area.

GMA News Research reviewed the voter turnout of the EWAs when it was under Comelec control and when it was taken off the poll body’s direct supervision. 

Findings showed that majority of the watch list areas had better voter turnout when they were no longer under Comelec control. 

Among the 260 EWAs, 39 were placed under Comelec control in at least one election from 2004.  

In the 2010 polls, for example, 26 watch list areas were placed under Comelec control. More than half of these areas had an increase in voter turnout when they were no longer under the poll body’s supervision in the following elections. 

Matungao, Lanao del Norte, for example, had a turnout of 75.81 percent in 2007. 

In 2010, it was placed under Comelec control and the turnout dropped by nearly 13 percentage points.

The following elections,  Matungao was no longer under Comelec supervision and the turnout was up by 9 percentage points – 72.02 percent. 

Parish Pastoral Council for Responsible Voting chair Henrietta de Villa said placing an area under Comelec control can work both ways. 

“Maaaring ‘dangerous’ ang isang lugar pero pag pumasok na ang pulis at military, maaaring maging kampante na ang mga botante. Placing (an area) under Comelec control, parang double edge sword yan. It may encourage more voters kasi nga mismong Comelec nasa lugar na. Also kapag hotly contested ang isang lugar, like Abra, mas nahihikayat nang bumoto ang mga supporter,” De Villa said. 

De Villa added that voters may also be discouraged to cast their votes with the Comelec control tag, resulting in low turnout.  

“Pag nilagay sa Comelec control, mahirap kasi ibig sabihin prone to election violence. Kaya nga  hinahawakan mismo ng Comelec ang lugar to make sure na hindi magkaroon dito ng election failure,” she said. 

In areas like Nueva Ecija, an area consistently on the election watchlist, “maaaring natatakot ang mga botante na mag-participate kasi nga mataas ang posibilidad ng kaguluhan,” De Villa said.

In at least two EWA municipalities in Nueva Ecija, the turnout is consistently decreasing. The towns of Santo Domingo and Zaragoza were placed under Comelec control in 2007 and 2010. They were not under the poll body’s supervision in 2013 but the number of voters who actually cast their ballots still dwindled. 

Provinces with most EWAs

There are seven provinces where more than half of the cities and municipalities were identified as EWAs: Sarangani, Lanao del Norte, Zamboanga Sibugay, Bukidnon, Western Samar, Nueva Ecija and Misamis Occidental.

Four of these provinces are in Mindanao.  

In Pangasinan, Leyte, Zamboanga del Norte and Ilocos Norte, at least 10 LGUs were classified as EWAs for this year's polls. 

Provinces with election watch list areas (based on data gathered from 10 regions) 

Consistent EWAs

More than half of the 260 EWAs have figured in the PNP’s previous lists of areas being monitored for possible election-related violence.  

These 165 cities and municipalities have been declared as EWA in at least one election since 2001. These 165 LGUs cover 5.6 million registered voters.

Three municipalities in Abra—the provincial capital of Bangued, Dolores and Lagayan—have been EWAs in every election year since 2001. 

In the 2010 report of the Independent Commission Against Private Armies or the Zeñarosa Commission, which then-President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo created to help authorities dismantle private armies, Abra ranked seventh in terms of number of private armed groups.

The commission also named three political families with private armed groups—Valera, Luna and Crisologo. 

In the past, at least five prominent Abra politicians were killed: Rep. Luis Bersamin Jr. in December 2006, La Paz Mayor Mark Israel Bernos in January 2006, Provincial Board Member James Bersamin in November 2006, Tubo Mayor Jose Segundo in December 2001 and Tineg Mayor Clarence Benwaren in October 2002.

San Carlos City in Pangasinan has been tagged as a watchlist area in four elections—2001, 2004, 2007 and 2013. In 2007, then-San Carlos City Mayor Julian Resuello, at the time a candidate for vice mayor, was gunned down during a fiesta. 

The municipality of Taysan in Batangas was an EWA in 2004 and this year. During the canvassing of votes in May 2007, three were killed when armed men burned the Bayanan Elementary School in Taysan, Batangas. One of the fatalities was Nellie Banaag, a teacher who was tasked to count the votes in the municipality. 

Namfrel’s Alvia said an election is a perfect opportunity for armed groups to act, adding that most of these groups are in the places with a high number of EWAs.  

In April 2015, Mayor Gemma Adana of Naga town in Zamboanga Sibugay was abducted from her home. Earlier reports claimed that the Abu Sayyaf group initially demanded P100 million for her release. Adana was freed six months later.  She is running for vice mayor this May. 

A month before the 2013 elections, Mayor Abdul Malik Manamparan of Nunungan, Lanao del Norte was gravely wounded after an ambush. At least 13 were killed, including Manamparan’s granddaughter. 

The United Nations Development Programme’s Human Development Report identified Lanao del Norte as among the provinces with the highest number of encounters involving the Moro Islamic Liberation Front and the Moro National Liberation Front from 1998 to 2004.   

Saranggani and Western Samar both have NPA presence and local warlords, Alvia said. 

The regional police office has told GMA News Research that all municipalities in Sarangani were placed under the watch list because of the NPA, adding that there were at least three politically motivated incidents reported in the province in 2013. 

In Western Samar, at least four mayors have been killed since 2004.  

Reynaldo Uy, then mayor of Calbayog City, was gunned down in 2011. Matuguinao Mayor Carlos dela Cruz was shot inside his house in 2009. 

Mayor Benito Astorga was killed during a fiesta celebration in the town of Daram in 2007.  

Anieto Olaje was on his last term as mayor of Tarangnan when he has killed in 2004.

The Zeñarosa Commission listed Western Samar among the provinces with highest number of private armed groups. 

Alvia warned that election violence may intensify during the campaign period for local candidates. He notes that their volunteers have already experienced some form of intimidation even before the campaign period for local candidates officially started on March 26. 

Alvia said some of their volunteers in the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao are concerned because local officials oppose Namfrel’s request to review the voter’s list. “Such form of intimidation is expected to worsen, possibly to actual violence, come election day.”  

In 2012, the Comelec delisted more than 280,000, mostly multiple registrants, in ARMM after conducting a general registration of voters. The cleansing of the voters list is part of electoral reforms in the region which has figured in election rigging issues before. — with Dianne RJ Obdin, GMA News Research/RSJ/NB, GMA News