Mindanao violent incidents in an uptrend since 2021 —study

A recent study by the Council for Climate and Conflict Action Asia (CCAA) showed that incidents of violence have been increasing in Mindanao since 2021, which may have an impact on next year's local elections.

In its Conflict Alert Triennial 2021-2023 Report, the CCAA warned that this may affect the peace and security situation in the region during the upcoming 2025 May elections and the Bangsamoro parliamentary polls. 

According to the study, among the factors contributing to the growing violence is the proliferation of illicit drugs and illegal firearms in the shadow economy.

Also affecting the peace situation in the region is identity-related violence, which includes clan feuding over land and political office, persistent extremist violence, as well as violent political contestation.

“The main causes of deaths between the years 2011-2023 were identity conflicts,” said CCAA Trustee Nikki del Rosario. 

“We classify identity conflict, usually the incident is combined with violent extremism...Kaya mataas 'yung incidents of deaths because the manifestations of identity conflict are clan feuding, violent extremism, non-Moro Indigenous People-related (NMIP) conflicts,” said del Rosario. 

(The death incidents were high because the manifestations of identity conflict are clan feuding, violent extremism, non-Moro Indigenous People-related (NMIP) conflicts.)

“Usually identity conflicts are combined with other causes. In most cases, it's political combined with shadow economies,” she added. 

Extremists

Meanwhile, the study showed that violent incidents were concentrated in areas under the Bangsamoro government, particularly Lanao del Sur and Maguindanao provinces. 

This is due to the vertical assaults from extremists and insurgents as well as the horizontal assault stemming from the schisms between Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) members, it added. 

“We're receiving data of people getting killed and the numbers were increasing and were only halfway of 2024. Our numbers are reaching nearly the incidents of the entire 2023. You still have 2025 elections,” said Lara. 

Aside from increased violence, the research also said there may also be deaths and displacements multiply among vulnerable sectors including NMIPs, and  intensified internal armed struggles involving MILF, Moro National Liberation Front, Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters, Dawlah Islamiya, and the Communist Party of the Philippines-New People’s Army-National Democratic Front. 

It also said coordinated and cooperative armed attacks against state forces may likely increase and the links between illicit drugs, weapons, and electoral campaigns may become stronger. 

To mitigate the conflict, the research said there should be an “all hands-on-deck” approach for the 2025 elections including mediating of violent and longstanding feuds, redundant and autonomous monitoring of systems and organizations, as well as collaborative responses from the media.

In conducting the study, the CCAA used police and media reports to gather violent conflict data in five provinces of the Bangsamoro region. It also utilized a multi-stakeholder Validation Group, which was composed of members from diverse backgrounds, with local knowledge of violent conflict in the areas covered by conflict alert. —VAL, GMA Integrated News