Water cannon incident could be start of escalating violence in West PHL Sea

The water cannon incident in Panatag Shoal may happen again if the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and China failed to sign a Code of Conduct within the South China Sea, parts of which Manila claims as West Philippine Sea.

"Maaari talagang mangyari 'yung mga insidente na 'yan at mauulit pa, dahil walang malinaw na agreement o guidelines para gabayan 'yung mga claimant kung paano magbe-behave sa contested South China Sea," said Professor Rommel Banlaoi, executive director of the Philippine Institute for Peace, Violence and Terrorism Research in an interview  "News To Go" on Thursday.

"Kaya nga ang Pilipinas ay 'yan ang ating isinusulong na magkaroon talaga ng Code of Conduct sa South China Sea para gabayan 'yung ugali ng claimants at maiwasan ang insidente na ito," he added.

On Monday, Armed Forces of the Philippines chief General Emmanuel Bautista told reporters that Chinese Coast Guard personnel fired water canon at Filipino fishermen trying to fish in Panatag Shoal (also referred to as Scarborough Shoal).

The Philippines has pushed for a maritime Code of Conduct within the disputed seas since tension between Manila and Beijing commenced in 2012.

PHL provocations

But China on Wednesday accused the Philippines of "deliberate provocations" over the "water cannon" incident.

The Philippines lodged a protest against China on Tuesday over the issue, saying the Chinese were trying to keep the fishermen from fishing in Philippine waters.

China's foreign ministry, which has already rejected the complaint, said its boats had every right to respond to "provocative" acts in its territory.
 
China suspected the aims and identities of several Philippine fishing boats that recently appeared in the waters around the disputed shoal, as some of them appeared to just "hang around," foreign ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said.
 
The Philippine boats ignored calls from the Chinese ships to leave, with some aboard even adopting a "provocative posture of appearing to spoil for a fight" in activities showing "a strong level of organization and confrontation," Hua said.
 
"In the face of this seriously provocative behavior, China maintained utmost restraint, and as multiple warnings failed, could not but take the minimum measures to carry out expulsions, which caused no harm to the Philippine fishing boats or personnel," she told a daily news briefing.
 
War?

If the tension between Beijing and Manila continues to rise, Banlaoi feared there could be a danger of escalating violence, or worst, countries may go into a war.

"Kaya ayaw nating magyari 'yung bagay na 'yan dahil ang Pilipinas committed tayo... [and] we renounce war as matter... policy kaya gusto talaga natin na magkaroon ng code of conduct," he said.

On Wednesday, the Malacañang rejected China's call for bilateral talks regarding the water cannon incident. Instead, it said it will pursue the arbitration case before the United Nations.

Banlaoi said the Philippines refused to have another bilateral agreement with China after Beijing broke the Philippine government's trust.

He was referring to the incident when the two countries agreed to withdraw their armed forces from Panatag Shoal. Manila had ordered a pull out, but Beijing did not.

"Kaya nga [i]dinulog natin ang ating kaso sa arbitral tribunal dahil sa tingin natin 'di sumusunod sa kasunduan o gentleman's agreement ang China," he said.

"We lost Scarborough shoal already. We lost the Mischief Reef. Kaya nga gusto natin 'yung international tribunal na and mag-decide na para [suportahan] tayo ng international community sa ating maritime claims," he added.

The Philippines will not be the first ASEAN nation to have a war with China, if ever, Banlaoi  said, citing Vietnam's experience in the 1980s.

He also noted a "silent row" between Malaysia and China.

Asked if the United States will support the Philippines in the event of a war with China, Banlaoi said the superpower will likely refuse to join the fray.

"Sa ngayon nga tinutulungan tayo ng America na ma-build 'yung capacity natin to defend ourselves pero kung aktwal na magpa-participate ang armed forces of the United States to assist us on our war with China… sa pananaw ko ay 'di papayag ang mga Amerikano," he said.

He explained that the US military needs its Congress' approval before it could assist the Philippines.

Moreover, he sadi the country also follows the same process, the Philippine military needs permission from the Philippine Congress before it may declare war with other countries. — Rouchelle R. Dinglasan /LBG, GMA News