What's in store for Philippines with US under new Trump administration?

What’s in store for the Philippines under another Trump presidency? 

Former US President Donald Trump is about to return to the White House after four years.

With his take on immigrants and his emphasis on “Make America Great Again” as the slogan of his campaign, officials and analysts weighed in on how a Trump presidency would affect Filipinos here and abroad. 

Trump reiterated in his victory speech that he would close borders in the United States and would impose stricter laws against illegal aliens. 

“We gonna have to seal up those borders, we are gonna have to let people come into our country. We want people to come back in, but they have to come in legally… We are gonna start by putting America first,” he said. 

Analysts now believe that this platform by Trump will be immediately felt once he officially seats again at the White House, according to JP Soriano’s report in “24 Oras” on Wednesday. 

Data gathered by the GMA Integrated News Research showed that there are 4,640,313 Filipinos in the US as of last year, according to the latest figures by the US Census Bureau. 

Further, data from the US Department of Homeland Security stated that Filipinos have the fifth largest unauthorized immigrant population in the US with 350,000 in 2022. 

“Pag nanalo si Donald Trump magkakaron ng bagong wave (A Donald Trump victory would mean new wave) of restrictions and new policies that will constrain immigration to the United States even for those who are already there,” said Julio Teehankee, a political science and international studies professor from the De La Salle University. 

“Magkakaron ng epekto rin sa mga ibang kababayan natin lalo na yung mga gustong mag-migrate sa United States, so mas magiging mahigpit,” he added. 

(This will affect some Filipinos especially those who want to migrate to the United States, so expect stricter policies.) 

Another matter that everyone is looking forward to is how a Trump presidency would affect the relations between the US and the Philippines. However, US Ambassador to the Philippines Mary Kay Carlson is confident that the ties between the two countries would remain strong.

“In my 39 years in the State Department, I have witnessed transitions from Republican to Democrat, to Republican and back and forth and I am extremely confident that US-Philippine relations will remain steadfast and steadfast friends and ironclad allies as well as partners in prosperity no matter who wins in the elections in the United States,” she said. 

Experts also shared the same sentiments regarding the bilateral relationship between the US and the Philippines. 

“It was actually during the Trump administration when the US actually went with the mutual defense treaty with the South China Sea in a much more, sort of forceful fashion,” said foreign policy analyst Prashanth Parameswaran. “With this sort of commitment to China and the South China Sea, you’ll see a lot of continuity.” 

“Sa kanila nanggaling yung term na ironclad. Nung nagda-doubt tayo, 'di ba kasi may mga batikos na nanggagaling kay dating Pangulong Duterte na hindi maasahan ang Amerika, nanggaling sa gobyernong Trump na ironclad ang pagsasamahan natin,” said geopolitical analyst Dindo Manhit. 

(The term ironclad first came from them. When we doubted when former President Duterte slammed America then, it came from the Trump government that the two countries will have an ironclad relationship.) 

At a news forum on Saturday, geopolitical analyst Don McLain Gill said there would be no "radical shift" in the alliance under Trump.

“I don’t expect any radical shift na magkakaroon sa alliance natin particularly in the field of defense and security,” Gill said.

(I don’t expect any radical shift emerging in our alliance, particularly in the field of defense and security.)

“The Philippine-US alliance today has become so consequential to the interest of both the United States and the Philippines,” he added.

Further, European countries are “increasingly” looking at the PH-US ties as a pivot for their interest in the Indo-Pacific, he added.

“European countries are increasingly looking at the Philippine-US alliance as a fulcrum for their interest in the region and we have shown because we are active stakeholders in the Indo-Pacific’s maritime domain to maintain the rules-based order there and we are more than happy to work with like-minded countries within the region and beyond,” Gill said.

Earlier, Philippine Ambassador to the US Jose Manuel Romualdez said the alliance between the Philippines and United States would stay strong regardless of who wins the US presidential election.

Romualdez said he talked to both the camps of Trump and Kamala Harris and they assured him the foreign policy would be the same.

But former Philippine Ambassador to the United States Jose Cuisia Jr. said it would be more beneficial for the country if Harris wins the US presidential elections.

Further, experts also think that Trump’s “Make America Great Again” slogan could also have an impact on the economic policy of the US. 

“Ang isa pong binabantayan natin sa eleksyon sa Amerika ay ang kanilang trade policy declarations, pangunahin na po dito si Trump, na nagbigay na po ng deklarasyon na papatawan niya ng matataas na buwis ang mga ini-import ng Amerika papunta sa kanilang bansa at ito ay kaugnay ng kanyang pangako na, ‘Make America Great Again’,  by bringing jobs back to America,” said economist Emmanuel Leyco. 

(What we are also looking forward to in the American polls is the trade policy declarations. With Trump, he wants to impose higher taxes on everything that America is importing which is in line with his promise of ‘Make America Great Again,’ so he wants to do that by bringing back jobs to America.) 

Trump first visited the Philippines in 2017 when Rodrigo Duterte was still the Philippine president. 

President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. on Wednesday congratulated Trump. —Vince Ferreras and Jamil Santos/NB/VBL, GMA Integrated News