Decoupling from China not entirely in PH interest, says US research group

Any decision by the Philippines to decouple from China will not be beneficial to Manila, a United States research group said Wednesday, despite worsening ties between the two Asian neighbors due to confrontations in the South China Sea.

Friction between the Philippines and China has intensified in recent months as tensions spread to a new scene of active conflict in the resource-rich waters, portions of which Manila refers to as West Philippine Sea.

“I would say it is not in the Philippines’ interest to entirely decouple dealing from China,” Samantha Custer, director of policy analysis of Virginia-based AIDDATA, told a media briefing at the US Embassy in Manila.

Custer said it would give the Philippines more leverage if it would engage with more countries, including China, but noted that Philippine officials must ensure that any dealings with Beijing would be transparent and advantageous to the country.

Citing data from AIDDATA, Custer said roughly 55 percent of China’s projects and investments in the Philippines relied on state-owned Chinese firms with questionable business practices or indirectly sanctions by the World Bank and Asian Development Bank.

“I think your negotiation hand is stronger when you can have more people around the table so you should be working with the US, you should be working with China, you should be working with Australia,” Custer said.

Philippine data showed the US and China as the Philippines’ top export markets. Total exports to the US were valued at $11.55 billion while exports to China were worth $10.93 billion.

An AIDDATA study showed China has bankrolled projects in electronic and information infrastructure to physical connectivity, utilities, food, and power energy and transportation.

Countries should be allowed compete with each other to give the Philippines “the best terms possible,” Custer said.

“I would say the fewer people around that table, the more you're kind of stuck taking whatever deal is before you,” she said.

The Philippines, Custer added, should use its hedging strategy to its advantage to get better offers and increase the transparency of terms.

If China is the actor to do it, Custer said, “by all means, go for that deal,” as long as it would offer more generous terms with higher accountability and transparency.

“I think that can be advantageous,” she said, “If you can't get that, then it is risky because these high-risk projects, they can succeed, but they often don't. They create cascading effects.”

Sabina Shoal or Escoda Shoal has emerged as a new site of confrontations between China and the Philippines in the disputed waters.

The Philippine Coast Guard deployed BRP Teresa Magbanua to Sabina on April 15 after Philippine authorities found crushed corals and other piled debris in the shallows of the uninhabited shoal that they said could be a sign of a Chinese plan to start a construction of a structure in the shoal, which is located within the Exclusive Economic Zone of the Philippines.

China reacted by deploying coast guard and other vessels to Sabina, including it’s biggest coast guard vessel dubbed a “monster ship” for its size. The “monster ship” has left but several other Chinese ships are now closely guarding the Magbanua, which sustained damages after being rammed by Chinese ships recently.

The Philippines strongly protested China's actions and the United States, Japan, Australia, and other like-minded states deplored the dangerous moves by the Chinese.

As of August 27, the Philippines under President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has filed 176 diplomatic protests against China.

Since last year, China’s coast guard vessels have repeatedly blasted water cannons, used military-grade lasers and blocked Philippine government ships from conducting resupply missions from a shoal, called Ayungin by Manila, that Beijing claims as its own.

Several confrontations between Chinese and Filipino vessels have resulted in several injuries from the Philippine side, including one Filipino soldier who lost a thumb in a June 17 incident at the shoal, where several knife and axe-wielding Chinese coast guard personnel blocked, harassed, and attacked Filipino navy while bringing food and other supplies for a small Philippine contingent stationed in Ayungin.

Manila and Beijing in July forged a “provisional arrangement” to deescalate tensions and prevent clashes in the Philippine-occupied Ayungin Shoal or Second Thomas Shoal.

Following the arrangement, no confrontation was reported when the Philippines delivered food supplies and other necessities and transported a new batch of navy personnel to Ayungin, where a rusting World War II-era vessel, deliberately grounded by Manila in 1998, serves as a military outpost.

A The Hague-based tribunal ruled in favor of the Philippines in July 2016 and declared China's massive and historic claim on the South China Sea illegal and baseless under international law. China does not recognize the ruling. — RSJ, GMA Integrated News