PAGASA: More provinces to have drought in February

With the El Niño phenomenon expected to peak this month, over 35% to 50% of the country may experience below-normal rainfall conditions as more provinces begin to cope with drought.

The reduced rainfall may intensify dry spells and drought in several parts of the country within the first quarter of the year, according to PAGASA's El Niño Advisory issued on Tuesday.

"By the end of February, twenty-four (24) provinces in Luzon and one (1) province in Visayas are potential for meteorological drought conditions; seventeen (17) provinces for dry spell, while, ten (10) provinces will be potential for dry conditions," the state weather bureau said.

PAGASA expects a worse situation compared to its assessment of the affected provinces in January 2024, when a total of 14 provinces experienced drought, 10 had dry spells, and 17 had dry conditions.

The state weather bureau predicted that the following areas would be affected by the end of the month:

Drought

Three consecutive months of way below-normal rainfall condition; greater than 80% reduction from average rainfall

• Luzon: Abra, Apayao, Aurora, Bataan, Benguet, Cagayan, Cavite, Ifugao, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Isabela, Kalinga, La Union, Metro Manila, Mountain Province, Nueva Ecija, Nueva Vizcaya, Occidental Mindoro, Palawan, Pangasinan, Quirino, Rizal, Zambales
• Visayas: Negros Occidental

Dry Spell

Three consecutive months of below normal rainfall condition; 21-60% reduction from average rainfall

• Luzon: Batangas, Laguna, Masbate, Oriental Mindoro
• Visayas: Antique, Biliran, Capiz, Cebu, Eastern Samar, Guimaras, Iloilo, Leyte, Negros Oriental, Samar
• Mindanao: Lanao del Norte, Sulu, Tawi-Tawi

Dry Conditions

Two consecutive months of below normal rainfall condition (21-60% reduction from average rainfall

• Luzon: Bulacan
• Visayas: Bohol, Siquijor, Southern Leyte
• Mindanao: Camiguin, Misamis Occidental, Misamis Oriental, Zamboanga del Norte, Zamboanga del Norte, Zamboanga del Sur, Zamboanga Sibugay

San Jose town in Occidental Mindoro was a sweltering 36.0 degrees Celsius on Jan. 7, beating its previous historic maximum temperature record of 35.5 degrees Celsius.

Very few tropical cyclones

While one or no tropical cyclone may occur within the month, the country will still feel the effects of the Amihan or Northeast Monsoon, localized thunderstorms, shear lines, easterlies and low-pressure areas.

Meanwhile, generally warmer temperatures with surges of cold due to the Amihan are expected in the rest of February, except in Batanes, Camarines Norte, Romblon, Masbate, Bohol, Southern Leyte, and South Cotabato.

Metro Manila may feel temperatures from 18.5 to 35.0 degrees Celsius.

According to the PAGASA bulletin, the El Niño phenomenon is expected to persist through March to May, with a transition to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-Neutral conditions from April to June. — VDV/ GMA Integrated News