50 Chinese ships swarm near Ayungin Shoal — analyst

Some 50 Chinese vessels were spotted near Ayungin Shoal ahead of the rotation and resupply mission of the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) to BRP Sierra Madre, an American maritime security analyst said.

In a post on X (formerly Twitter) last Thursday, former United States Air Force official and ex-Defense Attaché Ray Powell said the number of Chinese vessels in Mischief Reef or Panganiban Reef has increased from last week.

"Most of China's maritime militia rotation deployed to Mischief Reef, where the Qiong Sansha Yu fleet is up from 14 last week to 35 now (+15 smaller ships)," Powell said.

China is possibly maintaining its presence there until the Philippines' next resupply mission in Ayungin Shoal, also known as Second Thomas Shoal, according to Powell.

"China may be keeping force levels high there until after the Philippines' next resupply of nearby 2nd Thomas Shoal," Powell said.

Meanwhile, Powell said last week that 27 Qiong Sansha Yu-class ships were deployed south of Spratly Islands and east to Scarborough Shoal.

Last December, Powell reported that the Chinese vessels near Ayungin Shoal were in "invasion" mode — information which the AFP denied.

BRP Sierra Madre has been grounded at the Ayungin Shoal since 1999. It is manned by more than a dozen Marines and sailors. It has become a symbol of Philippine sovereignty in the offshore territory.

Resupply missions to the BRP Sierra Madre, however, have become increasingly difficult as Chinese vessels have been disrupting the passage of Philippine vessels to the area.

Ayungin Shoal is part of the Kalayaan Island Group as well as the Philippines' exclusive economic zone and continental shelf, over which the country has sovereignty, sovereign rights, and jurisdiction.

Tensions between China and the Philippines have heightened in recent months as both sides trade accusations over a series of incidents in the South China Sea.

China claims most of the South China Sea, parts of which are also claimed by the Philippines, Brunei, Malaysia, Taiwan, Vietnam, and Indonesia.

An international tribunal in 2016 invalidated China's claim in a ruling on a case brought by the Philippines, which Beijing rejects.

The Philippines includes areas of the South China Sea that fall within its exclusive economic zone (EEZ) and continental shelf as part of the West Philippine Sea (WPS). — VDV, GMA Integrated News