DOE sees no red, yellow alerts in 2024 despite El Niño

The Department of Energy (DOE) expects the power supply situation in the country to be stable next year despite the threat of El Niño, which would render hydroelectric power plants unavailable.

"We are looking at, from the supply side. We are looking at adequate levels," Energy Secretary Raphael Lotilla said at a press conference in Taguig City on Thursday.

Citing the agency's projections for next year, DOE-Power Industry Management Bureau Director Irma Exconde said that the generation capacity of hydroelectric power plants is expected to be reduced by as much as 70%, especially in the Luzon and Visayas grids where large hydropower generation facilities are located.

"But still, what we are saying is even with these assumptions, we're still looking at without potential red or yellow alerts because of the power plants coming in 2024," Exconde said.

"Particularly, there are several solar power plants coming in and these will be favorable under an El Niño scenario," she added, noting that the additional power capacity would be as much as "almost a thousand megawatts."

A yellow alert status indicates that the grid has thin reserves but the chances of power interruptions are unlikely. A red alert, meanwhile, indicates that there is a generation deficiency based on available supply against the peak demand. This situation could prompt rotational power interruptions.

Lotilla said that even if the power supply is projected to be adequate despite the absence of Angat and Caliraya-Botocan-Kalayaan hydropower plants, "we are also anticipating that there might be interruptions where the plants, especially the coal-fired power plants, will not be working at their optimal levels."

"Diversification is very important at this point, including natural gas. That's why we're trying as well to make sure that the supply contracts for the fuel and power produced from the natural gas plants will be available for our people," the Energy chief said.

The DOE chief said hydropower plants will be preserved so as not to compete with its use for potable water.

"We are therefore making sure that all the non-hydro plants are working at their best. This includes, of course, making sure that the natural gas plants which will be available in 2024 are made use of and all of our coal-fired power plants are also working well," he said. — VDV, GMA Integrated News