DOST: 65 provinces could experience drought in 2024

At least 65 provinces in the Philippines could experience drought by next year, Science and Technology Secretary Renato Solidum Jr. said Tuesday.

''Based on recent conditions, moderate to severe drought conditions are likely from February to May 2024. And by end of May, there would be 77% of the provinces of the country will have potential for drought that would be around 65 provinces and 7% potential for dry spell or around six provinces,'' Solidum said at a press briefing.

''And because of this, we need to further intensify our efforts to make sure that we are ready for this especially on the various fields that were already mentioned like health, water, agriculture, sanitation, and of course, peace and order; and we also need to involve everyone in this effort,'' he added.

The DOST chief, however, did not name the affected provinces.

Solidum said the DOST-PAGASA issued on December 6 El Niño Advisory No. 6 which states that a strong El Niño is present in the tropical Pacific and this has further intensified, nearing its peak in the coming months as the sea surface temperature anomalies have reached more than 1.5 degrees centigrade.

''Aside from that, majority of global climate model suggests that El Niño likely persists until the second quarter of 2024,'' he said.

The El Niño phenomenon is characterized by the abnormal warming of sea surface temperature in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean and below normal rainfall.

Solidum also said the effects of El Niño are currently felt and they have been experienced in some areas in the country, noting that this is characterized by the reduction of rainfall up to 80% which led to dry conditions or dry spells. 

He explained that dry spells are episodes where there is 21% to 80% reduction of rainfall compared to the average normal months data.

Fewer storms

Below normal also would be the number of tropical cyclones in the previous months and this has contributed to persistence of dry conditions in some areas, Solidum said.

The Philippines has so far endured fewer storms in 2023 than in any of the past 25 years, PAGASA officials said according to a report on Agence France-Presse.

The Philippines is usually affected by around 20 major storms a year. So far this year, only 10 have made landfall or come close, the lowest number since 1998 when 11 were recorded, said PAGASA chief climatologist Ana Solis.

With less than three weeks of the year left, "it looks like the record will be beaten," Solis told AFP, adding that climate change was "probably" a factor.

The Philippines began keeping weather records in 1948, Solis said. —with a report from Agence France-Presse/AOL/BM, GMA Integrated News