OCTA: Philippine COVID cases down 15% from last week's average

The seven-day COVID-19 case average in the country has declined by 15% from last week’s 3,487 to 2,959 per day as of August 27, independent monitoring group OCTA Research said Sunday.

In a tweet, OCTA fellow Dr. Guido David noted that the one-week average was at its highest at 4,071 two weeks ago.

The country’s reproduction number also slightly decreased to 0.91 on August 24 from 0.96 on August 17.

The 7-day average of new Covid cases in the PH decreased to 2959 as of August 27, down 15% from the previous week. Reproduction number decreased to 0.91. Current trends project to less than 1k new cases per day by mid September and 500 daily by end of September. #COVID19 @dzbb pic.twitter.com/a326kf2Eus

— Dr. Guido David (@iamguidodavid) August 28, 2022

Reproduction rate refers to the number of people infected by one case. A reproduction number that is below 1 indicates that virus transmission is slowing down. 

Meanwhile, its positivity rate -- or the percentage of people who were found positive for COVID-19 among the total number of individuals tested -- has gone down from 16.2% to 14.3% as of August 26.

Its average daily attack rate (ADAR) is also considered “low” at 2.69 per 100,000 population.

ADAR pertains to the incidence showing the average number of new cases in a period per 100,000 people.

Likewise, David said that COVID-19 cases in the country may drop to as low as 500 cases per day by end-September if the trend continues.

“If current trends in the growth rate hold, this projects to less than 1,000 cases per day nationwide by mid-September and less than 500 per day by end of September,” he said.

The Philippines on Saturday logged 2,565 new COVID-19 cases, bringing the active caseload down to 29,807. —LBG, GMA News