OCTA sees new COVID-19 cases hitting 450 to 500 on June 15, 2022

The OCTA Research group expects the number of new COVID-19 cases nationwide on Wednesday to hit 450 to 500, with 250 of those coming from the National Capital Region.

On Twitter on Tuesday night, OCTA Research fellow Dr. Guido David said the single-day positivity rate in NCR had increased to 4%.

The new COVID-19 infections have accelerated with a reproduction number of 1.59, a slight increase from 1.29 last week.

David said that it was “likely to exceed initial forecasts.”

Reproduction rate refers to the number of people infected by one case. A reproduction number that is below 1 indicates that the transmission of the virus is slowing down.

The positivity rate refers to the percentage of people who were found positive for COVID-19 among the total number of individuals tested.

According to David, Metro Manila is expected to be at moderate risk for COVID-19 by next week.

“At this time nasa low risk pa tayo sa Metro Manila, green pa siya. Pero by next week, we are projecting nasa moderate risk na tayo, yellow,”  David said in a Laging Handa briefing.

(At this time we are still at low risk in Metro Manila, so it’s still green. But by next week, we are projecting to be at moderate risk, so yellow.)

Low risk means the average daily attack rate (ADAR) in an area is less than 1 per 100,000 population while moderate risk means it is between 1 to 7.

David said the government might need to decrease passenger capacity on public transportation or indoor establishments “at the minimum.”

He also advised establishments to “hold off” the return to on-site work.

The OCTA fellow said working from home may help the public save money while fuel prices are high.

While deferring to the Department of Education, David also suggested to put off the start of face-to-face classes by a month.

The Philippines logged 257 new COVID-19 infections on Tuesday, bringing the nationwide tally to 3,693,865, according to the latest data released by the Department of Health (DOH). —NB, GMA News