Bongbong still leads presidential race in OCTA’s latest April survey

OCTA Research Presidential Preference Nationwide Survey 2400 respondents conducted April 22 to 25, 2022. Margin of error +/-2%. Survey was conducted face to face. pic.twitter.com/Cvb6PrI04b

— Dr. Guido David (@iamguidodavid) May 5, 2022

Presidential candidate Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. maintained his lead in the presidential race based on the latest survey conducted by independent monitoring group OCTA Research late last month.

Results of the Tugon ng Masa Survey conducted on April 22 to 25 showed that Marcos recorded 58% preference votes out of the 2,400 sample size with a ±2% margin of error.

The latest results indicate a slight increase from Marcos’ 57% preference votes recorded in the April 2 to 6 survey from the same organization.

Marcos showed his grit most in the Visayas Regions with 62%, followed by Balanced Luzon with 59%, Mindanao with 56%, and the National Capital Region with 46%.

Following him was Robredo with 25% preference among respondents across the country, showing a 3% increase from the previous 22% recorded in the previous survey.

Marcos and Robredo were followed by Manila City Mayor Isko Moreno with 8% (from 9%), Senator Manny Pacquiao with 5% (from 7%), and Senator Panfilo Lacson with 2% (from 4%).

Trailing behind were Faisal Mangondato with 1%, and former Defense Secretary Norberto Gonzales and labor leader Leody De Guzman with 0.2% each.

According to OCTA, the respondents were asked face-to-face with the question: Kung ang eleksyon ay gaganapin ngayon, sino sa kanila ang pinakamalamang na iboboto ninyo bilang Presidente? 

(If the elections were held today, who would you likely vote for President?)

In terms of socio-economic class, 53% of respondents in the ABC class chose Marcos, 60% in Class D, and 54% in Class E.

Next to him was Robredo whom 32% of the respondents from ABC class picked for president, 23% from Class D, and 28% from Class E.

Some 0.4% of respondents did not give a categorical answer for their presidential choice. This includes 0.1% who said they still did not know who to vote for, 0.04% said they have no one to vote for, while 0.3% refused to answer. 

VP race

In the vice presidential race,  Davao City Mayor Sara Duterte still emerged as the leading choice.

Results of the Tugon ng Masa Survey showed Duterte with  56% preference votes in the country, a slight decrease from the 57% from the April 2 to 6 survey.

Duterte scored most in the Mindanao regions with 82%, followed by Visayas with 61%, Balanced Luzon with 49%, and the National Capital Region (NCR) with 48%.

Duterte was followed by Senate President Vicente Sotto III with 22% (from 23% in the previous survey) and Senator Francis Pangilinan with 16% (from 12%).

Trailing behind were Dr. Willie Ong with 4% (from 7%), House Deputy Speaker Lito Atienza with 1% (from 0.7%), Manny Lopez with 0.1% (from 0.1%), Professor Walden Bello with 0.03% (from 0.1%), and Carlos Serapio with 0.001% (from 0%). 

Senate race

For the Senate survey, broadcaster Raffy Tulfo remains the top choice, scoring 63%, followed by former Public Works and Highways secretary Mark Villar with 55% and Antique Representative Loren Legarda with 51%.

Senate Majority Leader Miguel Zubiri earned the fourth spot with 49%. He was followed by Sorsogon governor and former senator Francis "Chiz" Escudero with 46% and actor Robin Padilla with 44%.

Taguig Representative and former senator Alan Cayetano garnered 40%, Senator Win Gatchalian got 39%, Senator Joel Villanueva 36%, and former senator Jinggoy Estrada 33%.

Former senator JV Ejercito, Senator Risa Hontiveros, and former vice president Jejomar Binay were tied at the end of the winning spots ranking 9th-14th with 31%. Binay slipped from 7th-11th place with 42% in the previous survey down to the tail of the winning ranks. 

During the Laging Handa briefing, OCTA Research fellow Professor Ranjit Rye explained that based on their earlier survey, they have seen that 10% to 20% of the total voting population are still likely to change their votes come May 9 polls.

He also pointed out the three major reasons why the said voters may change their votes.

“Number one, kung sangkot ‘yung kandidato nila sa korapsyon, number two kung siya ay nagsisinungaling, at number three kung siya'y nasangkot sa iskandalo,” Rye added.

(Number one, if their candidates are involved in corruption, number two if they are lying, and number three if they are involved in a scandal.)

Further, OCTA Research fellow Dr. Guido David said they only surveyed those who are registered voters and are likely to vote in the upcoming elections.

In their latest survey results, it was shown that 96% of the respondents said they will surely vote, while the remaining 4% said they will probably vote.

Meanwhile, 86% said they will still vote even if there will be a high number of COVID-19 cases in their area or barangay during election day. Seven percent said they will not vote if that is the case, while 7% said they are not yet sure.— RSJ/KBK/AOL, GMA News