DOH warns of COVID-19 surge by May if health protocols not followed

The Philippines may experience another surge in COVID-19 infections by mid-May, with Metro Manila possibly recording as many as almost half a million active cases if the minimum public health standards (MPHS) are ignored, the Department of Health (DOH) warned on Thursday.

In a statement, the DOH said that a 50% decrease in the compliance of MPHS in the National Capital Region (NCR) may result in 25,000 to 60,000 new COVID-19 cases per day next month. 

“[This may bring] the number of NCR active cases to almost half a million by mid-May - more than three times higher than the active cases during the Omicron wave’s peak,” the DOH said, citing the Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered with Vaccination and Reinfection (SVEIR) model used by the sub-Technical Working Group on Data Analytics (sTWG DA) and the Feasibility Analysis of Syndromic Surveillance using Spatio-temporal Epidemiological Modeler for Early Detection of Diseases (FASSSTER) Team.

Based on the models, a 20% decrease in MPHS compliance nationwide may lead to around 34,788 active COVID-19 cases by mid-May. According to the DOH, over 564 of these cases could be classified as severe and 267 as critical.

Meanwhile, a 30% decrease in MPHS compliance might increase the cases further, possibly to as high as 300,000 over the same period.

“This figure is higher than the largest recorded number of active cases at 291,618 during the peak of the Omicron wave in January 2022,” the DOH said.

Analysts said the country may only have had a low number of cases from March to April, but Filipinos have been less compliant with MPHS during the same period. They reported a nationwide MPHS compliance rate of -7% and a NCR compliance rate of -12%.

Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire stressed that the public could still prevent a possible surge in COVID-19 cases by continuing to observe the health protocols, on top of getting the primary vaccine series and booster shots.

“Numbers do not lie. The good news is, at this point, these are all still projections. We can still avert these estimates in favor of better scenarios. We can all do our part to help stop transmission and mutation of the virus if we are to keep wearing our best fitted masks, isolating when sick, doubling protection through vaccines and up to date boosters, and ensuring good airflow,” she said.

On Tuesday, Vergeire said COVID-19 infections in the country are now plateauing, with the average daily cases recorded in the last week being 26% lower than the previous week.

If no new variant of the coronavirus comes into the country and Filipinos strictly observe the health protocols and get inoculated, the DOH said that the number of active cases nationwide may decrease and then plateau from 26,256 as of April 12 to around 1,293 to 16,934 in mid-May. 

“The same drop in severe and critical cases will also be seen, given those conditions. Unless those in NCR improve their compliance with MPHS, the capital could still see an increase in active cases even as other areas will see a decrease,” it said.

Philippine College of Physicians president Dr. Maricar Limpin earlier raised the alarm over the possible entry into the Philippines of the Omicron XE subvariant and the low rate of booster shot coverage of Filipinos may lead to a surge in COVID-19 cases in May.

Moreover, the DOH cited another model from the Australian Tuberculosis Modelling Network (AuTuMN) Team, which estimates that the introduction of a new variant that is two times more transmissible than Omicron and has the ability to escape immunity may lead to a peak in intensive care unit (ICU) admissions in the NCR of around 2,418 cases. 

“This can occur as early as mid-May 2022. This peak is 2.6 times higher than the 666 admissions last seen in January 2022, and 8.6 times higher than the current 253 admissions,” the DOH said.

"Throughout the pandemic, NCR had at most 1,649 available ICU beds for COVID. This estimated ICU admission will fully occupy these ICU beds and potentially overwhelm our health systems and critical care capacities," it added.

"Lowering transmission will lessen the possibility of emergence of new variants, while high coverage of both primary series and booster doses will greatly contribute to a high defense wall against infection and severe disease."

The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has already granted emergency use authorization (EUA) for second booster shots for senior citizens, the immunocompromised, and frontline healthcare workers. —VBL, GMA News