Simulation shows potential yellow alert in Luzon grid during election period —DOE

The Department of Energy (DOE) on Friday said the Luzon power grid might experience problems during the national elections period in May, taking into consideration the unpredictability of outages of power plants.

At a virtual press briefing, DOE-Electric Power Industry Management Bureau director Mario Marasigan said there are no foreseen yellow or red alerts in the grid during the dry season, especially during the May 9 polls, based on the approved Grid Operating and Maintenance Program (GOMP) submitted by the National Grid Corp. of the Philippines (NGCP).

The GOMP policy requires power generation companies (GenCos) to submit their respective proposed maintenance schedules in advance to enable the DOE to come up with accurate power supply/demand projections for the coming year.

For the 2022 GOMP, power generation firms are prohibited from scheduling their maintenance during the second quarter of the year as it coincides with the election period.

While the GOMP showed no looming yellow or red alerts during the critical period, simulations run by the NGCP and the DOE showed otherwise, according to Marasigan.

“The NGCP and DOE jointly did a lot of simulations. The latest one we have is to run a simulation recognizing the average outages on a per day basis for the entire year because we cannot predict exactly when outages will happen,” he said.

The DOE executive said that the NGCP analyzed historical records in the last four years to come up with an average projection of possible outages.

“With due recognition that there is an almost 500 megawatts (MW) [outage] average for the entire year average… In this simulation, we will have possible six yellow alerts in Luzon,” Marasigan said.

The yellow alerts might happen one week before and one week after the May 9 elections, he said, citing the power outlook with simulations of force outages.

“The day itself of the election happens to be spared by the yellow alerts,” Marasigan said.

Nonetheless, he said the DOE has identified several contingency measures should there be forced outages of power plants.

One of the contingency measures is the expected testing and commissioning of the GNPower Dinginin Unit 2 plant with an available capacity of 668 MW this month.

The second contingency measure is the deferral of preventive maintenance shutdowns of several hydropower facilities to a later date.

“We appealed to operators of large hydropower facilities to defer their preventive maintenance shutdowns. Luckily, we got their nods,” Marasigan said.

“We can now use the available capacities of huge hydropower facilities at times we will be needing them during the election period,” he added.

“Third option, normally the transfer of electricity from the Visayas to Luzon is about 100 to 150 MW. However, the line itself is capable of transmitting 300 MW so that’s another contingency.”

For his part, DOE Undersecretary Felix Fuentebella said that yellow alerts are not cause for concern as “yellow alerts do not result in rotational outages.”  —KBK, GMA News