DOH: New COVID-19 cases down to 70 a day by end of April if health measures followed

The number of new COVID-19 cases may go down to 70 a day by the end of April if Filipinos will continue to observe minimum public health standards, the Department of Health said on Tuesday.

According to Health Undersecretary Ma. Rosario Vergeire, the other factors that will contribute to the decreasing the daily number of new cases are the current mobility patterns and the vaccination rate.

“By April 30, nationally, we will have daily cases of 70 hanggang 268. So, 70 cases lang ang makukuha natin by end of April kung current tayo na compliant sa minimum public health standards at tsaka ‘yung bakunahan natin ganito ang antas pati ‘yung mobility,” Vergeire said.

(By April 30, we may have daily cases of 70 to 268 nationally. So, we will only get 70 cases by the end of April if we are, by then, still compliant with the minimum public health standards and if we have the same level of vaccination and mobility.)

Minimum health standards refer to the wearing of face masks, frequent hand washing, proper coughing etiquette, and social distancing. 

The health official said failure to follow health protocols may result in 670 new cases a day in the same time frame.

Vergeire said the projections were only based on assumptions and were “not cast in stone.”

She said there might still be other risk factors that may affect the data such as entry of new COVID-19 variants in the country.

“Anything can still happen. There are a lot of risk factors present right now na maaring makatulong sa pagtaas ng kaso in the coming weeks or months. Kailangan lang talaga na magtulong-tulong tayo,” Vergeire said.

(There are a lot of risk factors present right now that can result in increasing of cases in the coming weeks or months. We just really need to work together.)

Shanghai outbreak

Asked how the government would ensure that COVID-19 cases abroad particularly in Shanghai would spill over to the Philippines, Vergeire said safety were in place even after the Philippines opened its borders to foreign travelers.

“Ang kailangan nating maintindihan, hindi na tayo pwedeng magsasara, magbubukas, magsasara, magbubukas," Vergeire said.

"Kailangan, we should be able to rely on these strategies that we impose or implement para maproteksyunan natin ang populasyon,” she added.

“Hindi ibig sabihin na binuksan natin ang ating borders, that we do not have any safeguards anymore para ma-detect kung may pumapasok na variants ba o may pumapasok na positibo sa ating bansa,” Vergeire said.

(What we need to understand is, we can no longer close and open our borders repeatedly. We must be able to rely on these strategies that we impose or implement so that we can protect the population. It does not mean that when we open our borders, we no longer have safeguards to detect if there are variants or COVID-19 positive individuals entering our country.)

Vergeire made the remark amid reports that the eastern half of Shanghai went into lockdown to curb the COVID-19 outbreak.

Chinese authorities then said they would carry out a two-phased lockdown of the city of around 25 million people to carry out mass testing.

Latest vaccination, case figures

Vergeire said that the national positivity rate had decreased to 2.1% from the 2.7% recorded last week.

However, she pointed out that the positivity rate in the Cordillera Administrative Region has slightly increased from 1.6% to 1.7%.

She said this is still below the World Health Organization’s benchmark of 5%.

Positivity rate refers to the percentage of people who were found positive for COVID-19 among the total number of individuals tested.

As of Monday, 73.02% of the country’s target population have been fully vaccinated while 78.82% got their first doses.

Among the targeted adolescent population, 77.87% have completed their primary series. Among the children, 5.82% have received their first two doses.

Meanwhile, 75.63% of the targeted senior population, and 93.1% of those with comorbidities have been fully vaccinated.

The Philippines recorded a total of 2,726 new COVID-19 cases from March 21 to March 27.

There were also 387 new cases reported on Monday, bringing the nationwide tally to 3,677,376. —NB, GMA News