Philippines remains at ‘very low risk’ for COVID-19 while nearby countries on ‘severe outbreak’ — OCTA

The Philippines has remained under the “very low risk” category for COVID-19 as  neighboring countries like Vietnam, Singapore, and Brunei experienced a “severe outbreak” of infections, independent monitoring group OCTA Research said Thursday.

East and SE Asia monitor. Philippines at VERY LOW RISK as of March 22 with an ADAR of 0.43. South Korea, Vietnam, Hong Kong, Singapore and Brunei still on a SEVERE outbreak. Increase in cases in China and Laos. @dzbb @dzrhnews @allangatus @DZAR1026 @News5PH @NewsRmn @dwiz882 pic.twitter.com/zMRhgkRYNb

— Dr. Guido David (@iamguidodavid) March 23, 2022

In a tweet, OCTA Research fellow Dr. Guido David said data as of March 22 showed the Philippines’ average daily attack rate (ADAR) decreased to 0.43 on March 22, with a seven-day average of 478 cases.

ADAR pertains to the incidence showing the average number of new cases in a period per 100,000 people.

Meanwhile, the country’s growth rate in new cases from the previous week as compared to the current week also went down to -15%.

The Department of Health (DOH) announced on Tuesday that all regions in the country remained at “minimal risk” in terms of COVID-19 case classification as the number of infections slowed down.

Despite the improving numbers, OCTA fellow Ranjit Rye said there is a possibility that the infections might increase due to the massive gatherings during campaign sorties.

“Nakikita natin na talagang tatatas ang mga kaso, maraming mahahawan pa rin pero hindi tayo magkakaron ng surge kagaya ng nakikita natin in the past likely because marami nang immunized sa ating bansa o dumadami pa,” he told Super Radyo dzBB in an interview.

(We see that the cases will definitely increase and many will still be infected, but we will not have a surge as we have seen in the past, likely because many have been immunized in our country and it is still increasing.)

However, South Korea, Vietnam, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Brunei all remained under the “severe” category, with South Korea still recording the highest ADAR in East Asia countries at 778.50.

Malaysia eased from the “severe” category recorded on March 18 to “very high” with an ADAR of 69.22.

Japan and Thailand, meanwhile, also fell under the “very high” category with an ADAR of 33.18 and 35.32, respectively.

Moreover, Laos recorded an ADAR of 17.27 which placed it now under “high” risk for COVID-19, while Indonesia maintained the “moderate” classification with 3.08 ADAR.

Aside from the Philippines, countries like China, Myanmar, Cambodia, Taiwan, and Timor Leste are at “very low” risk for COVID-19, according to OCTA.

Asked if the Philippines would no longer experience the more transmissible Omicron variant surge like in other countries, Rye said, “Mahirap na tayong bumalik do’n sa panahon na ‘yun kasi unang-una, marami nang bakunado lalo na sa National Capital Region (NCR). Pangalawa, maraming nahahawaan na so may natural immunity.”

(We might no longer go back there because many have already been vaccinated, especially in the National Capital Region, and many got infected with the virus so they now have a natural immunity.)

In mid-February, Health Secretary Francisco Duque III said the country has already crossed past the crisis stage when it comes to the surge caused by the Omicron variant.

In the Philippines, the NCR and 47 other areas were placed under Alert Level 1 from March 16 to March 31.

Under Alert Level 1, intrazonal and interzonal travel is allowed regardless of age and comorbidities. All establishments, persons, or activities, are allowed to operate, work, or be undertaken at full on-site or venue/seating capacity provided it is consistent with minimum public health standards.

The Philippines on Wednesday recorded 407 new COVID-19 cases, bringing the nationwide COVID-19 tally to 3,675,384.

The DOH said a total of 3,572,224 patients recovered from the viral disease, while the number of deaths climbed to 58,563. 

Rye then called on the public not to be complacent and take their primary COVID-19 vaccine series and booster shots, on top of continuous observance of minimum public health standards.

As of March 21, DOH reported there were 65.2 million Filipinos now fully vaccinated against COVID-19, while more than 70.4 million individuals received their first dose.

There were also around 11.6 million individuals who are already boosted against the viral disease. — RSJ/KBK, GMA News