OCTA: NCR COVID-19 reproduction number falls to 0.63

The COVID-19 reproduction number down to 0.63 in the National Capital Region (NCR), while some areas in the region have improved to “moderate risk,” OCTA research fellow Dr. Guido David said on Wednesday night.

In a tweet, David said the COVID-19 cases in the NCR may drop to less than 500 on February 14.

“2455 new cases in the NCR today 01/26/22. Actuals still tracking below projections. The target now is below 500 new cases by Feb 14. Reproduction number is down to 0.63 in NCR,” David said.

David earlier reported that the COVID-19 reproduction number in the region has decreased to 0.71.

Reproduction rate refers to the number of people infected by one case. A reproduction number that is below 1 indicates that the transmission of the virus is slowing down.

In a separate tweet, the OCTA research fellow said areas in the region including Caloocan, Navotas, Malabon, Valenzuela and Manila have improved to “moderate risk,” while the rest of the NCR is still at “high risk.”

He, however, noted that the COVID-19 average daily attack rate (ADAR) in these areas are “high” such as Caloocan (14.38), Navotas (16.63), Malabon (21.44), Valenzuela (22.14), and Manila (24.81).

ADAR pertains to the incidence showing the average number of new cases in a period per 100,000 people.

“Still we cannot let our guards down. Let's continue to follow health protocols and stay safe,” David added.

The Philippines on Wednesday registered 15,789 new COVID-19 cases bringing the nationwide tally to 3,475,293. —NB, GMA News