NCR drop from high to moderate risk seen next week —OCTA

The National Capital Region (NCR) is now classified as "high risk" for COVID-19, OCTA Research said Wednesday, citing indicators.

The new classification is an improvement considering that NCR was classified with a "severe outbreak" last week, according to the independent monitoring group.

"Expecting NCR to be at moderate risk next week," OCTA fellow Dr. Guido David said on Twitter.

Citing data from the Department of Health (DOH), OCTA said seven-day average cases in the NCR was down from 15,782 (Jan. 12 to 18 period) to 6,280 (Jan. 19 to 25).

Likewise, the one-week average daily attack rate (ADAR) plunged from 111 (Jan. 12 to 18) to 44 (Jan. 19 to 25).

As of Jan. 26, reproduction rate in the NCR is at 0.71, down from last week's 2.06.

Reproduction rate refers to the number of people infected by one case. A reproduction number that is below 1 indicates that the transmission of the virus is slowing down.

Meanwhile, NCR also shows improvements in other indicators, namely seven-day positivity rate (down from 36% to 24%), healthcare utilization rate (down from 56% to 48%) and ICU level (53% to 44%).

David said indicators are based on Covidactnow.org.

Health Secretary Francisco Duque III on Monday said the Philippines and NCR have been downgraded to "high risk" from critical risk for COVID-19 although the ADAR remains high.

NCR recorded 2,751 new COVID-19 cases on Tuesday, Jan. 25. In a separate tweet Tuesday night, David said new COVID-19 infections in the region could go below 500 by February 14.

"2751 in the NCR, right in the middle of projected range of 2.5k to 3k. Actuals are still tracking below Jan 20 projections," he said.

"At this rate, new cases in the NCR could go below 500 by Feb 14," David added.

The DOH on Tuesday recorded 17,677 new COVID-19 cases increasing the nationwide COVID-19 tally to 3,459,646.

Metro Manila is under Alert Level 3 until January 31. Under this alert level, several establishments are allowed to operate at 30% indoor venue capacity only for fully vaccinated individuals and 50% outdoor venue capacity, provided that all employees are fully vaccinated.

In an interview on Super Radyo dzBB, Metropolitan Manila Development Authority (MMDA) chairman Benhur Abalos said NCR mayors and health experts are set to meet on Thursday to discuss the next possible alert level in the region.

"Mag-uusap kami tomorrow [We'll have a meeting tomorrow]," he said. "We will always be guided by the findings of our health experts."

Abalos said based on current metrics, Metro Manila can already be downgraded to Alert Level 2.  —KBK, GMA News