NCR on 'severe outbreak' as average daily attack rate rose to 89.42% —OCTA

COVID-19 average daily attack rate (ADAR) in the National Capital Region (NCR) has increased to 89.42%, placing the region on "severe outbreak," independent monitoring group OCTA Research said Tuesday.

In a tweet, OCTA Research fellow Dr. Guido David said NCR's ADAR from December 28, 2021 to January 3, 2022 was only at 12.71%.

It has then multiplied to over seven times from January 4 to 10 with 89.42%.

“The average daily attack rate increased to 89.42, which is above the Covidactnow threshold for a severe outbreak,” David said, noting that this is greater than the 75 per day per 100,000 population.

ADAR pertains to the incidence showing the average number of new cases in a period per 100,000 people.

The seven-day positivity rate in the NCR, meanwhile, also increased to 48%, David said.

“The reproduction number decreased to 5.22 from 5.65, which indicates the trend slowed down slightly,” he added.

Reproduction rate refers to the number of people infected by one case. A reproduction number that is below 1 indicates that the transmission of the virus is slowing down.

The healthcare utilization rate also rose to 57% this recent week as compared to the 27% from the previous week.

Same goes with the intensive care unit (ICU) occupancy with only 29% on December 28 to January 3 to 52% on January 4 to 10.

“Hospital bed occupancy increased to 57% and is likely to exceed 70% next week,” David said.

David noted that overall, "NCR is classified as very high risk."

Based on DOH’s Monday COVID-19 bulletin, 52% of the 1,100 ICU beds and 67% of the 4,800 ward beds in the NCR were in use.

Meanwhile, 54% of the 4,700 isolation beds and 25% of the 1,000 ventilators in NCR were utilized.

The Philippines on Monday again registered an all-time high of new COVID-19 infections with 33,169, raising the Philippines' total caseload to 2,998,530.

Health Secretary Francisco Duque III on Monday night said the Philippines has been classified as critical risk for COVID-19 amid the sudden spike of infections believed to be driven by the Omicron variant.

Duque also said Omicron has already surpassed Delta as the dominant variant in the country based on the latest whole genome sequencing.

The DOH reported that there are 43 confirmed Omicron cases in the country.

Of these, 10 were returning overseas Filipinos and 19 were local cases with indicated addresses in the NCR.  —KBK, GMA News