NCR, Cainta COVID-19 average daily attack rate over 55% —OCTA

The COVID-19 average daily attack rate (ADAR) showed the highest in the National Capital Region (NCR) and Cainta, Rizal in the past week with 59.81% and 55.37% respectively, independent monitoring group OCTA Research said Sunday. 

In a tweet, OCTA Research fellow Dr. Guido David reported that NCR has the most COVID-19 infections from January 2 to 8 averaging at 8,468 new cases.

This was a 785% one-week growth rate as compared to its previous average of 957 new cases from December 26, 2021 to January 1, 2022.

NCR was followed by Cainta which showed a 1,343% one-week growth rate from the previous 14 weekly average of cases to 202 in the recent week.

“ADAR of NCR [and] Cainta at over 50 per day per 100k,” David said.

LGUs in the NCR, Calabarzon and Central Luzon with most new cases from Jan 2 to 8. ADAR of NCR, Cainta at over 50 per day per 100k. @dzbb @allangatus @dzrhnews @DZAR1026 @NewsRmn @dzme_1530khz @dwiz882 @ABSCBNNews @manilabulletin @CarolynBonquin @haydeesampang @News5PH @EagleNews pic.twitter.com/J2L2GtKDB0

— Dr. Guido David (@iamguidodavid) January 9, 2022

Attack daily rate pertains to the incidence showing average number of new cases in a period per 100,000 people, he added.

Other local government units (LGUs) with high ADAR were found in Cavite, namely General Trias with 32.35%, Imus with 31.74%, and Bacoor with 31.71%.

Meanwhile, in Bulacan, the city of Meycauayan showed an ADAR of 28.45% while Marilao is at 27.59%. San Mateo, Rizal, on the other hand, is at 27.62%.

Antipolo, Dasmariñas, San Jose del Monte, Taytay, Santa Rosa, Rodriguez, San Pedro, Marilao, Santa Maria, Biñan, Malolos, and San Fernando, Pampanga also recorded an increase in COVID-19 infections.

The highest one-week growth rate was found in Calamba, Laguna with 1,750%. The area only reported an average of four cases from December 26 to January 1. However it went up to 74 average cases from January 2 to 8.

Positivity rate

Meanwhile, as of January 7, the positivity rate of the coronavirus in NCR reached 50.5%, the first time it hit above 50%, OCTA Research said Sunday.

The positivity rate refers to the percentage of people who were found positive for COVID-19 among the total number of individuals tested.

David said the peak of COVID-19 cases in NCR may possibly occur within the week.

"The data from DOH shows that the rate of increase of the positivity rate could be slowing down. We will know in the next few days if the positivity rate is indeed slowing down or if this is just an artificial effect. If the increase in positivity rate is slowing down, then the peak in the NCR might occur within the week. Let us hope that is the case. Today (January 8) we expect 17k new cases in the NCR and 27k in the Philippines (give or take)," David wrote on Twitter.

Positivity rate in the NCR exceeds 50% but is it slowing down? Will NCR peak soon? Daily projections: NCR 17k PH 27k. @dzbb @dzrhnews @allangatus @DZAR1026 @News5PH @NewsRmn @dwiz882 @dzme_1530khz @EagleNews @ABSCBNNews @PhilstarNews @haydeesampang @CarolynBonquin @bworldph pic.twitter.com/1DGzf7VdDc

— Dr. Guido David (@iamguidodavid) January 9, 2022

The Philippines on Saturday recorded 26,458 new COVID-19 cases, the highest daily tally since the start of pandemic, bringing the nationwide COVID-19 tally to 2,936,875.

Following the statement of the Department of Health (DOH) that the government will not adopt mass testing as a strategy against COVID-19 as it is not rational and science-based, David said that the scale of infections is already wide enough even if he is in favor of more COVID-19 testing for Filipinos.

“Masyado nang malaki ang scale eh kahit mag-mass testing tayo. I mean, ano ‘yung matutulong no’n kung mag-mass testing tayo tapos makita natin na kunwari sabihin natin na 20% ng tao ma-test natin ay may virus?” he said during a virtual forum on Sunday.

(The scale is too big even if we do mass testing. I mean, what help would it bring if we do mass testing and say we found that 20% of the people we test have a virus?)

David thus stressed the importance of getting oneself immediately isolated should a person experience COVID-related symptoms so as to prevent the spread of the disease.

If they only face mild symptoms, they could treat it as flu and take medicine as needed, he added

“Typically naman kapag may flu tayo hindi naman tayo dapat lumalabas at nanghahawa ng ibang tao, 'di ba? Hindi naman tayo magpapa-test kung may flu tayo,” he said.

(Typically if we have the flu we don’t go out to infect other people, right? We don’t also get tested to know if we really have the flu.)

Metro Manila is currently under Alert Level 3 until January 15.

The government also placed its adjacent provinces Bulacan, Cavite, and Rizal under Alert Level 3 from January 3 until January 15, while Laguna is under the same alert level starting January 7 until January 15.

Fourteen more cities and provinces were placed under Alert Level 3 starting January 9 until 15 due to the rising number of COVID-19 cases.

Under Alert Level 3, several establishments are allowed to operate at 30% indoor venue capacity only for fully vaccinated individuals, and 50% outdoor venue capacity, provided that all employees are fully vaccinated.

Health Secretary Francisco Duque III on Saturday raised the possibility of upgrading the quarantine status in the NCR to Alert Level 4 as COVID-19 cases continue to surge.

David however said that it is still important for people to observe the minimum public health standards and get vaccinated against COVID-19.

“Baka ‘yung pagtaas ng alert level hindi na-clear kung ano ‘yung maitutulong nito at this point kasi marami na rin naman at konti lang naman ‘yung moderate, severe, at critical. Hindi naman ganoon kadelikado na itong Omicron,” he added.

(Maybe we could no longer determine the benefits of further raising the alert level system to Level 4 because we already have many infections. However, there are only a few moderate, severe, and critical cases so the Omicron is not that dangerous.) —KG, GMA News