NCR COVID-19 positivity rate slows down to 28.7% —OCTA

The rapid increase in COVID-19 positivity rate in the National Capital Region (NCR) "slowed down" to 28.7% on Sunday, according to independent monitoring group OCTA Research.

In a tweet, OCTA fellow Dr. Guido David said this is "possibly" due to a decrease in social and mass gatherings leading up to New Year's Eve.

Sunday's positivity rate is slightly higher than Saturday’s 28.03%, which classified the NCR as "high risk" for COVID-19.

Interviewed on Dobol B TV on Monday, David said the 28.7% positive rate has already surpassed the highest rate during the peak of the Delta surge last year and is on its way to reach the highest recorded positive rate at 30%.

“Nung Delta surge last year, ‘yung pinakamataas natin umabot lang tayo ng 27-28% eh. So, parang nahigitan na natin ‘yung positivity rate ng peak ng Delta surge. Pero nung March-April last year, umabot tayo ng 30% so I think mahihigitan pa natin ‘yung 30% na positivity rate,” he said.

(With the Delta surge last year, we only reached about 27-28%. We seem to have surpassed the positivity rate of the peak of Delta surge. Sometime in March or April last year, we reached 30% so I think we can still surpass this.)

With this, the NCR may reach up to 10,000 new COVID-19 cases by next week, David said.

He is however hoping that the tightening of restrictions in NCR under Alert Level 3, which has started on Monday, would help slow down COVID-19 transmission.

The Inter-Agency Task Force for the Management of Emerging Infectious Diseases has placed the NCR under Alert Level 3 from January 3 to 15, 2022, following the sharp increase in new COVID-19 cases.

David said with a “lower testing output,” they predicted that new COVID-19 cases in Metro Manila on Monday will decrease to 2,000 to 2,500, while there would be about 3,000 to 3,500 new cases in the whole country.

He also said there is a "big possibility" that Omicron transmission is already happening in Metro Manila.

“Partly dahil siguro sa mga social gatherings at sa complacency pero may iba pang nagda-drive nito. Palagay natin, may malaking possibility na may Omicron transmission na nangyari sa Metro Manila,” he said.

(Increase in cases may be due partly to social gatherings and complacency of the people, but there’s another thing that is driving it. We think that there’s a big possibility that Omicron transmission is already happening in the NCR.)

David stressed that they are not yet “totally alarmed” with this situation as the Omicron variant, which was first detected in South Africa, shows only mild symptoms among infected people who are fully vaccinated.

“Hindi pa naman tayo totally alarmed. Medyo optimistic tayo ngayon kumpara sa nakaraan na surge last year. Kasi tulad ng sinasabi sa ibang bansa, sa South Africa, ay karamihan mild lang naman ‘pag vaccinated,” he added.

(We are not yet totally alarmed. We are a bit optimistic compared to the surge last year because as they say in other countries like South Africa, most were mild cases among vaccinated individuals.)

Health Secretary Francisco Duque III earlier said the Omicron variant may already be responsible for this rise in COVID-19 cases in the country.

The country has so far detected 14 Omicron variant cases, including three local ones.

The Philippines on Sunday logged 4,600 new COVID-19 cases, bringing the nationwide tally to 2,851,931.

Recoveries climbed by 535 to 2,778,943, while 25 new fatalities pushed the death toll to 51,570. —KBK, GMA News