OCTA: NCR positivity rate climbs to 21%; new COVID-19 cases in Philippines may reach 4K

The OCTA Research Group on Saturday said the daily positivity rate in the National Capital Region has reached 21% on the second to the last day of 2021, and that COVID-19 cases in the country may total more or less 4,000 on January 1, 2022.

"On the 2nd to last day of 2021, the positivity rate in the NCR increased to 20.56%," the OCTA Research said on Twitter.

It is 2022 and back to tweet reports :( The positivity rate in the NCR increased to 21%. The reproduction number jumped to 3.19. This projects to about 3000 new cases in the NCR on January 1 and about 4000 in the country. Stay safe in 2022. @dzbb @dzrhnews @allangatus @DZAR1026 pic.twitter.com/RteKDOk9ox

— Dr. Guido David (@iamguidodavid) December 31, 2021

The positivity rate, which refers to the percentage of people who were found positive for COVID-19 among the total number of individuals tested, was 14% in the NCR a few days ago.

Based on OCTA Research's projections, more or less 3,000 new COVID-19 cases may be recorded in NCR on January 1, 2022.

It added that the reproduction number of the coronavirus in the NCR "increased to 3.19 as of December 28."

The said number was 1.47 earlier this week. 

The reproduction rate refers to the number of people infected by one case. A reproduction number that is below 1 indicates that the transmission of the virus is slowing down.

"NCR remained at moderate risk, but is likely to be classified as high risk by January 2, 2022," the group said.

Aside from the NCR, David also reported that Bulacan, Cavite, Laguna, and Rizal were also at moderate risk.

As of December 31, 2021. NCR, Bulacan, Cavite, Laguna and Rizal at moderate risk. @dzbb @allangatus @dzrhnews @NewsRmn @DZAR1026 @smninews @News5PH @dwiz882 @PhilstarNews @dzme_1530khz @EagleNews @manilabulletin @TheManilaTimes @haydeesampang pic.twitter.com/K2yEc3s6lk

— Dr. Guido David (@iamguidodavid) January 1, 2022

Nationwide, the tally of new COVID-19 cases may reach 4,000, the OCTA Research group said.

The Inter-Agency Task Force for the Management of Emerging Infectious Diseases placed NCR under Alert Level 3 from January 3 to 15, 2022 following the sharp increase in new COVID-19 cases.

Under Alert Level 3, several establishments will be allowed to operate at 30% indoor venue capacity only for fully vaccinated individuals and 50% outdoor venue capacity, provided that all employees are fully vaccinated.

Face-to-face classes in basic and higher education, contact sports, funfairs/perya, and casinos are among the activities and establishments that would be prohibited under Alert Level 3.

Health Secretary Francisco Duque III said Friday that the highly transmissible Omicron variant may already be responsible for the sharp rise in COVID-19 cases in the Philippines.

Fourteen Omicron cases have so far been detected in the country, including three local cases. —KG, GMA News