OCTA sees Omicron-related surge in January 2022

Independent research group OCTA on Monday said a coronavirus surge triggered by the new Omicron variant may occur in January 2022.

In Lei Alviz's "24 Oras" report, data scientist and OCTA Research Group Fellow Dr. Guido David found that the reproduction number in South Africa doubled when it detected the Omicron coronavirus variant.

A reproduction number higher than 1 means the virus can be transmitted exponentially.

"Sa case number sa South Africa, kasi nu'ng nagka-Delta surge sila, 'yung reproduction number nila, umabot ng mga 2. Sa current surge nila ngayon which is mostly driven by Omicron, nasa 4 na ang reproduction number nila, so mga doble," said David.

(In the case number in South Africa, when it had a Delta surge, the reproduction number was at 2. With their current surge, which is mostly driven by Omicron, the reproduction number was at 4 so it doubled.)

If the Omicron variant gets detected in the country, David said a possible surge triggered by the new variant in the Philippines may begin by January.

"Kung magkaka-surge, it might happen January or February based on history pero hindi naman 'yun guarantee," said David.

(If there will be a surge, it might happen in January or February based on history but that's not a guarantee.)

"Baka puwedeng mapaaga, pero I think, January would be a possible start of the surge... Pero at the same time, we have sufficient level of vaccination sa NCR and in many other regions, so it's possible na ma-mitigate nito 'yung spread ng Omicron," he added.

(It can be earlier but I think January would be a possible start of the surge. But at the same time, we have a sufficient level of vaccination in Metro Manila and many other regions. So this could mitigate the spread of Omicron.)

The Philippines is still recording more cases of the highly transmissible Delta variant and has yet to detect a case of the Omicron variant.

Omicron, which is a variant of concern, has 50 mutations with at least 30 mutations in spike protein. It has been detected in the United States, South Africa, Europe, and some parts of Asia. — Consuelo Marquez/DVM, GMA News