NCR records positivity rate of 2%, meets CDC ideal —OCTA

For the first time since the region began its testing for COVID-19, the positivity rate in the National Capital Region (NCR) decreased to 2%, independent monitoring group OCTA Research said Friday.

In its latest report, OCTA said this is within the 3% ideal positivity rate of the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. It also meets the 5% benchmark of the World Health Organization

OCTA said the seven-day average of new cases in NCR decreased to 349 from 421.

Meanwhile, NCR recorded a reproduction number of 0.48.

The reproduction number refers to the number of people infected by one case. A reproduction number that is below 1 indicates that the transmission of the virus is slowing down.

NCR also has an average daily attack rate (ADAR) of 2.46 per 100,000 individuals

According to OCTA, NCR remains classified as low risk for COVID-19.

Meanwhile, Navotas, Caloocan, Pateros, Marikina, and Valenzuela are classified as very low risk for COVID-19 while the remaining LGUs are classified as low risk.

Navotas recorded an 0.74, Caloocan with 0.93, Pateros with 1.45, Marikina with 1.64, and Valenzuela with 1.78.

Muntinlupa recorded an ADAR of 1.46 but has a moderate healthcare utilization rate and an ICU utilization rate of 52% and 65%, respectively.

“While the NCR and all the LGUs have done well to sustain the downward trend, the goal for the region is to continue to best practices and standards to decrease new cases to less than 50 per day by the end of the year,” OCTA said.

OCTA, however, said its findings and position as reflected in its report do not necessarily reflect the position of the Department of Health and the Inter-Agency Task Force (IATF).

The Philippines on Thursday logged 1,297 new COVID-19 cases, bringing the total to 2,821,753.

In an interview on Super Radyo dzBB, OCTA fellow Dr. Guido David said the Philippines also recorded a seven-day average of 1,500 and a positivity rate of 4%.

David said he is hopeful that the number of new cases will continue to decrease in the coming days.

“Pero sana patuloy na bumababa. Nakikita natin baka bumababa pa kasi sa Indonesia nakita natin bumaba. Atsaka dito bumababa pa rin,” he said.

(But I hope it will continue to go down. We can see that the number of new cases is still decreasing in Indonesia and here in the Philippines.)

According to David, the country’s situation amid the pandemic has improved compared to last year.

“Nag-improve kasi mas maraming testing ngayon kumpara last year tapos may bakuna na. I think narinig ko 100% na ng target population sa NCR or almost 100 ay bakunado na,” he said.

(We’ve improved because we are testing so many compared to last year and we also have vaccines now. I think I heard that 100% of the target population in NCR or almost 100% are vaccinated already.)   

When asked if a 2% positivity rate is enough for the region to be deescalated to Alert Level 1, Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire said there are other metrics to consider.

“Marami pa hong mga ibang metrics na ginagamit dapat. Dapat guided ang ating mga kababayan na ‘yung positivity rate, isa lang ‘yan out of the many factors that we consider to say that an area is at low risk already,” she said in a media briefing on Friday.

(There are other metrics to consider. The public should be guided that the positivity rate is only one of the many factors being considered to say that an area is at low risk already.)

“Kailangan natin tignan lahat bago tayo makapag deescalate to a lower alert level,” she added.

(We need to look at all the factors before we can deescalate to a lower alert level.) 

Vergeire previously said that for an area to be deescalated to Alert Level 1, it must sustain a low-risk classification for two incubation periods and have sufficient vaccine coverage.

She also said the government's COVID-19 task force was looking to add safety seals as an additional requirement for the deescalation.

The capital region was placed under Alert Level 2 until November 30. —KBK/VBL, GMA News