Philippines' virus reproduction number now at 0.98 —OCTA

The virus reproduction number nationwide fell to below 1, which means that the spread of the virus is slowing down, OCTA Research Fellow Dr. Guido David said Saturday.

"With today's number, the reproduction number in the country decreased to 0.98. The one week growth rate decreased to -13%," David wrote on Twitter. 

With today's number, the reproduction number in the country decreased to 0.98. The one week growth rate decreased to -13%. @dzbb @allangatus @News5PH @cnnphilippines @dzrhnews @onenewsph @NewsRmn @dwiz882 @smninews @EagleNews @dzbbsamnielsen @haydeesampang @PHINewsNet1 pic.twitter.com/ytkrgM3tsT

— Dr. Guido David (@iamguidodavid) September 25, 2021

The reproduction number refers to the number of people that one COVID-19 case can infect.

Further, the country's positivity rate decreased to 25% but it is still far off the international standard of less than 5%. COVID-19 positivity rate is the percentage of positive test results over the number of conducted tests.

The seven-day average of new COVID-19 cases in the Philippines also went down to 17,526 from 20,218, the group said.

Metro Manila reproduction number 

In the National Capital Region, the reproduction number decreased to 0.94 from 0.97 on Sept. 24, OCTA said.

Seven-day average daily cases in Metro Manila was at 4,220 with one-week growth rate of -20%.

Further, the group also revealed that San Juan had the highest average daily attack rate in Metro Manila, with 79.25%.

This was followed by Pateros with 50.58%, Makati with 46.21% and Mandaluyong with 38.91%.

9.26.21 report for the NCR. NCR still at high risk, but Navotas, Malabon, Manila, Valenzuela and Pateros at moderate risk (based on Covid Act Now). @dzbb @dzrhnews @cnnphilippines @allangatus @smninews @dwiz882 @NewsRmn @EagleNews pic.twitter.com/xrqgkcpVJu

— Dr. Guido David (@iamguidodavid) September 26, 2021

The OCTA Research Group had earlier said last week the reproduction number in Metro Manila may have already peaked after the region posted a reproduction number less than 1, which is 0.97. 

Despite this, the Department of Health (DOH) said Metro Manila's average daily attack rate (ADAR) remains at high risk at 38.04 cases per 100,000 population. ADAR refers to the percentage of population that contracts the disease.

Also, according to David, Metro Manila remained the top region with the highest number of fresh infections, with 3,898, followed by Cebu with 1,549.

Provinces with most cases on 9.25.21 per DOH. Again the numbers are only about 99% complete. NCR Plus numbers are lower but Cebu, Benguet, Negros Oriental, Cam Sur, Occ Mindoro, Kalinga had big numbers. @dzbb @cnnphilippines @allangatus @dzrhnews @NewsRmn @dwiz882 @EagleNews pic.twitter.com/DAC1qHGrVE

— Dr. Guido David (@iamguidodavid) September 25, 2021

As for the municipalities and cities, Quezon City remained the highest after posting 1,187 new cases. This was followed by Davao City with 744 and Cebu City with 683.

I apologize but the DOH files have already exceeded allowable size so I am only able to extract about 99% of data for now. LGUs with highest cases 9.25.21 per DOH. Seeing big numbers in Cebu and Benguet. @dzbb @dzrhnews @cnnphilippines @dzrhnews @NewsRmn @dwiz882 @EagleNews pic.twitter.com/aSIiXvhhF3

— Dr. Guido David (@iamguidodavid) September 25, 2021

Quoting data from infectious disease expert Dr. Benjamin Co, David posted the more accurate figure for top municipalities and cities for new COVID-19 cases.

• Quezon City - 1,198
• Davao City - 754
• Cebu City - 688
• Baguio City - 570
• Manila - 373

Thanks to @docbenjisays for the more accurate list. Based on other indicators, the numbers in Cebu area may be due to backlog. But other areas such as outside NCR Plus may be having a surge in cases. pic.twitter.com/TTQzDyaeGD

— Dr. Guido David (@iamguidodavid) September 25, 2021

Earlier on Saturday, the OCTA Research group said the virus reproduction number of Cagayan de Oro City went down to 0.57.

The DOH on Saturday reported 16,907 new COVID-19 infections, driving up the total tally so far to 2,470,175.

The country’s active cases also rose to 165,092.

The DOH also announced that total recoveries climbed to 2,267,678 while the death toll remained at 37,405. —KG, GMA News