NCR virus reproduction number now 1.42, growth rate at 19% —OCTA

The reproduction rate of the novel coronavirus causing COVID-19 in the National Capital Region inched up to 1.42, with a growth rate in cases of 19%, the OCTA Research group said on Saturday.

OCTA Research fellow Dr. Guido David divulged the figures on Twitter, adding that the daily average of COVID-19 cases in NCR is 5,958.

The reproduction rate, which indicates the number of infections generated from one individual, was at 1.41 last week in NCR.

David posted a table on Twitter showing the local government units with the highest number of COVID-19 cases on Sept. 11.

The first eight LGUs on the list are in NCR.

LGUs with the highest new cases reported on 9.11.21 per DOH. Many record numbers here, which I will unpack later. @dzbb @dzrhnews @allangatus @News5PH @NewsRmn @smninews @BomboRadyoNews @onenewsph @EagleNews @dwiz882 @haydeesampang @CarolynBonquin @DrTonyLeachon @RMMendozaMT pic.twitter.com/9ayBH2GRGt

— Dr. Guido David (@iamguidodavid) September 11, 2021

He also posted a table of provinces and regions showing them in order based on the highest number of new COVID-19 cases on Sept. 11.

Provinces/regions with the highest number of new cases reported on 9.11.21 per DOH. Some record breaking numbers. @dzbb @cnnphilippines @allangatus @dzrhnews @NewsRmn @News5PH @onenewsph @smninews @dwiz882 @EagleNews @RMMendozaMT @haydeesampang @CarolynBonquin @PatrickTulfo pic.twitter.com/OJBkkXNdu3

— Dr. Guido David (@iamguidodavid) September 11, 2021

NCR topped the list with 9,061 new COVID-19 cases.

"This is very serious. 9061 is a record for the NCR," David said.

He added that aside from NCR's 9,061 cases, the following LGUs also had record highs in new COVID-19 cases on Saturday:

• Caloocan: 869
• Taguig: 642
• Parañaque: 547
• Makati: 534
• Valenzuela: 439
• Muntinlupa: 384
• Las Piñas: 343

Still unpacking the record high numbers on 9.11.21. These are all new highs: NCR - 9061, Caloocan - 869, Taguig - 642, Parañaque - 547, Makati - 534, Valenzuela - 439, Muntinlupa - 384, Las Piñas - 343 @dzbb @allangatus @wengsalvacion @News5PH @DZMMTeleRadyo @smninews @dzrhnews

— Dr. Guido David (@iamguidodavid) September 12, 2021

David also showed the average daily attack rate (ADAR) for some Asian countries as of Sept. 10 based on data from Johns Hopkins University.

The Philippines is shown in orange on that list, meaning it is at high risk with 19,986 new cases.

New cases and ADAR for select Asian countries based on JHU data 9.10.21. New cases marked red indicate an increasing trend. ADAR are marked by risk (Covid Act Now): green - low, yellow - moderate, orange - high, red - critical @dzbb @allangatus @cnnphilippines @dzrhnews @NewsRmn pic.twitter.com/2qefqS8i6G

— Dr. Guido David (@iamguidodavid) September 12, 2021

The OCTA fellow said they are expecting the new COVID-19 cases on Sunday to reach 23,000.

"Median expectation for new cases today 9.12.21 is 23k cases. The upper range is around 24k but Sunday numbers are usually lower. Going with 20k but hoping for an even lower number today," David said.

Median expectation for new cases today 9.12.21 is 23k cases. The upper range is around 24k but Sunday numbers are usually lower. Going with 20k but hoping for an even lower number today.

— Dr. Guido David (@iamguidodavid) September 12, 2021

The Department of Health on Saturday reported 26,303 new COVID-19 cases, the highest recorded since the start of the pandemic.

According to the DOH, this brought the nationwide tally to 2,206,021 and active cases to 185,706. —KG, GMA News