Philippines' virus reproduction number at 1.5, new cases may reach almost 16K next week —OCTA

The country's coronavirus reproduction number went up to 1.5 on Sunday, and it is possible that new COVID-19 cases may reach almost 16,000 per day next week, the OCTA Research group said.

"Sa buong Pilipinas, 1.5 reproduction number. Tumataas pa rin," OCTA Research fellow Dr. Guido David said in an interview on Unang Balita on Monday.

(In the entire Philippines, the reproduction number is 1.5. It is still going up.)

The reproduction number, which refers to the number of people that each COVID-19 case can infect, was at 1.46 for the whole country from August 8 to 14. This was when the average new COVID-19 cases per day reached 11,000, the group said on Sunday. 

The Philippines reported 14,749 new COVID-19 infections on Sunday, pushing the number of active cases in the country to 102,748. This marks the second straight day that more than 14,000 new cases were recorded.

"Unfortunately, puwede pa talagang tumaas 'yan, depende kung anong mangyayari between now and next week," Guido said.

(Unfortunately, that number [of new COVID-19 cases] can still go up depending on what will happen between now and next week.

"Daily average natin tumataas sa buong bansa. Daily average is 11,800, almost 12,000. Tumaas 'yan ng 35% sa nakaraang linggo. Kung pagpatuloy itong 35%, baka almost 16,000 na ang daily average natin kasi bumibilis ang pagtaas sa ibang lugar," he added.

(Our daily average [of new COVID-19 cases] is increasing in the entire country. Daily average is 11,800, almost 12,000. That is an increase of 35% from the past week. If the 35% [growth rate] continues, our daily average may reach almost 16,000 due to the faster rate of increase of cases in other areas.)

NCR

The National Capital Region however is showing signs of improvement, Guido said.

"Sa Metro Manila, hindi siya tumaas kahapon. Bumaba siya ng konti. Noong Saturday, 3,989 cases. Pero kahapon, 3,640. Kahapon mas mababa siya kaysa doon sa past three days," he said.

(In Metro Manila, the number of new COVID-19 cases did not go up yesterday. It went down a bit. On Saturday, NCR had 3,989 [new] cases. Yesterday, 3,640. This is lower than the numbers the past three days.)

"So may hope naman na baka may makikita tayong epekto ng enhanced community quarantine sa Metro Manila," Guido said.

(So there is hope that we may see the effect of enhanced community quarantine in Metro Manila.)

"It's possible na mag-improve sa Metro Manila kahit papaano, at least ma-cap tayo sa 4,000 [new cases per day]," he added.

(It's possible that our situation in Metro Manila will improve somehow, at least the number of new cases per day will be capped at 4,000.)

The reproduction number in NCR remained at 1.9, Guido said.

"We are hoping mag-stabilize na siya or magsimula na siyang bumaba," he added.

(We are hoping it will stabilize or start to go down.)

Other areas

However, the number of COVID-19 cases continues to rise in other areas outside Metro Manila, Guido said.

"Tumataas ang kaso sa buong bansa... Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Pampanga, Rizal, Bulacan," he said.

(The numbers are increasing in the country...Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Pampanga, Rizal, Bulacan.)

Guido said the number of cases in Cebu slowed down but it is still going up.

In Misamis Oriental, the number went up a bit again.

In Iloilo Province, the number is also going up a bit, it hasn't slowed down.

"Ang nag-slow down lang talaga sa top 20 provinces ay Ilocos Norte," Guido said.

For August 8 to 14, Ilocos Norte had 218 new COVID-19 cases. The province had 287 the previous week. —KG, GMA News