China's occupation of reef would not have happened if US bases stayed in PHL —US expert

WASHINGTON/HAWAII - The occupation of Panganiban or Mischief Reef in the West Philippine Sea by super power China would not have occurred had the US military bases been allowed to stay in Clark and Subic, a professor for Southeast Asia Studies at the Johns Hopkins University said.

Professor Marvin Ott, speaking last Jan. 31 to Philippine media on a reporting tour under the Foreign Press center of the US State Department, said it seems nobody had thought of the connection between the departure of US forces from the Philippines and China’s complete control of Mischief Reef. He added there was “a severe absence of strategic thinking in Manila.”

"The Chinese decision to establish a position in Mischief Reef would not have occurred if the US was still at Clark Air Base and Subic Base," Ott said.

Mischief Reef was under Philippine control until 1995 when China took over and built structures over the disputed area.

Ott added, “The Philippines was at the opposite (end). It was very hard to find anybody in Manila with any interests in security strategy. I say that because there were things happening. And if you were a security strategist with geopolitical mindset, you would have been looking at things, and one of the things was the South China Sea,”

China was able to reclaim successfully other reefs in the disputed waters of the South China Sea including Subi Reef and Kagitingan Reef (Fiery Cross Reef).

It had also occupied Panatag Shoal (Scarborough Shoal) that is part of the Philippines' exclusive economic zone or EEZ. This led to the case filed by the Philippine government under the administration of former President Benigno Aquino III.

The Permanent Court of Arbitration ruled in favor of the Philippines against China’s nine-dash line claim but the latter had since vowed not to honor the ruling.

Expert: China will never agree to a real COC

There were efforts to come up with a Code of Conduct (COC) that will supposedly bind China and other nations. However, Dr. Ott said don’t expect China to agree to a “real” COC as it will “interfere” with China’s plans in the South China Sea.

“China will never agree to a real code of conduct... China will go another 15 years of talking if that is necessary," he said.

Washington-based think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) agreed. Murray Hiebert of the CSIS believes China will just “prolong” the negotiation of the COC just like what it did in the last decade.

Hiebert also stressed the importance of the Arbitration ruling that ruled in favor of the Philippines. But he said that while he sees President Rodrigo Duterte’s friendly engagement with China a "good move", the PCA should not be forgotten.

“To engage with them (Chinese) immediately was a good idea but not totally forgetting the ruling. I think Philippines would have had a few stronger cards in their hands if they mentioned it (ruling) a little bit more. China assumed that the Philippines has moved on,” Hiebert told reporters from the Philippines on Feb. 1.

He fears that delaying the emphasis of the Philippine government on the PCA ruling may result to a “forgotten ruling." Hiebert added that a "hallmark, a trendsetter, that defined so much of what the situation is in the sea” would eventually be “forgotten.”

The CSIS also believes that China’s tamer approach toward Filipino fishermen may have indicated that it has completed its mission, occupation and militarization within the South China Sea.

ASEAN

The East-West Center in Hawaii also doubts if the ASEAN can survive the pressure of conditions set by China as the association crafts its long overdue COC.

Denny Roy, a senior fellow of the East-West Center, on Feb. 6 said "those who doubt its continuous survival are raising the issue of whether ASEAN can survive these stresses imposed by increased demands of China on all the members.”

China has yet to comment on the statements made by US think tanks and experts.

However, in a recent interview, China’s ambassador to the Philippines Zhao Jianhua said he sees progress in the crafting of a COC which will serve as a barometer in attaining progress and prosperity in the region.

A professor from the College of Security Studies at the  Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies in Hawaii, however, said China’s willingness to cooperate on the COC is just “propaganda.”

Dr. Alexander Vuving, professor of the Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies in Hawaii, on Feb. 8 said China has shown it is willing to work with ASEAN on a Code of Conduct to show its “goodwill and engagement in cooperation.”

But in actuality, Vuving said, “There’s no real commitment to cooperation because if you look at what China is doing with its occupation, its island-building, and its militarization, you know you don’t see any cooperation in the COC process... You have no guarantee that China won't violate it again so it’s for propaganda purposes.”

US on ASEAN

As for the US engagement with ASEAN, the East-West Center feels that the current administration of US President Donald Trump may not be as active.

"What I'm concerned about is that the East-West think tank believes the Trump administration may not give Southeast Asia and ASEAN the kind of attention that it deserves unlike Obama,” said Roy. —KG, GMA News