NCR’s COVID-19 cases now on downward trend — OCTA

NCR Covid Cases on Downward Trend with growth rate of -9%, Reproduction number of 1.03, 7-day positivity rate of 15.7%, ADAR of 8.14 and HCUR of 37%. NCR remains at moderate risk at this time as level of infections remain significant. #Covid_19 @dzbb @DZAR1026 @dzrhnews @News5PH pic.twitter.com/oeUL90bLl8

— Dr. Guido David (@iamguidodavid) August 18, 2022

The COVID-19 infections in the National Capital Region (NCR) are now trending downward with a one-week growth rate of -9%, independent monitoring group OCTA Research said Thursday.

In a tweet, OCTA fellow Dr. Guido David said that NCR’s seven-day case average went down to 1,173, after recording 845 new cases on Wednesday, August 17.

Its average daily attack rate (ADAR) also slightly decreased to 8.14 per 100,000 population from 8.70 on August 14.

ADAR pertains to the incidence showing the average number of new cases in a period per 100,000 people.

NCR’s reproduction number or the number of people infected by one case, also declined to 1.03 on August 14 from 1.18 on August 7.

Its one-week positivity rate, on the other hand, also decreased from 17.1% on August 9, to 15.7% on August 16.

Positivity rate refers to the percentage of people who were found positive for COVID-19 among the total number of individuals tested.  

NCR’s healthcare utilization for COVID-19 patients also remained at 37%, while intensive care unit (ICU) occupancy was also still at 31% as of August 16.

With this development, David said the new COVID-19 cases in NCR may go down as low as 500 cases per day by end-august or start of September.

“Projections show less than 1,000 new cases in the NCR on August 18 and if the trends hold, we expect less than 500 new cases per day in the NCR by end of August or the first week of September,” he said.

David also noted the NCR is still at moderate risk for COVID-19 as “level of infections remain significant.”

Based on Department of Health’s (DOH) COVID-19 data on Wednesday, NCR recorded the most new cases in the recent two weeks at 15,141.

Overall, the Philippines on Wednesday logged 2,892 new COVID-19 infections, bringing the country’s active cases to 35,101. — RSJ, GMA News