COVID-19 case growth rate in NCR up 72%; hospital utilization still ‘low’ — OCTA

The National Capital Region’s (NCR) growth rate of COVID-19 cases has further increased to 72%, but its hospital utilization rate remains “low” at 22%, independent monitoring group OCTA Research said Tuesday.

In a tweet, OCTA Research fellow Dr. Guido David said that the seven-day average of the COVID-19 cases in NCR went up from 131 to 225 from June 14 to June 20.

7-Day average in NCR increased to 225 as of June 14-20 from 131. Growth rate of 72%, Rt = 2.05, positivity rate at 4%. Covid hospital occupancy in NCR remained LOW at 22%. Forecasts show hospital bed occupancy will remain manageable and no escalation of alert levels at this time. pic.twitter.com/j6db9gqn9d

— Dr. Guido David (@iamguidodavid) June 21, 2022

NCR’s reproduction number also climbed to 2.05, while its positivity rate is now at 4%.

Reproduction rate refers to the number of people infected by one case, while positivity rate refers to the percentage of people who were found positive for COVID-19 among the total number of individuals tested.

“Medyo tumataas ang infection rate, but at this time, nananatili namang mababa ang healthcare utilization natin sa Metro Manila nasa 22%. So, hindi pa masyadong tumataas. Safe pa naman ang hospitals natin,” David said during a Laging Handa briefing.

(The infection rate is quite rising, but at this time, our healthcare utilization in Metro Manila remains low at 22%. Our hospitals are still safe because the utilization is not increasing.)

He, however, noted that the average daily attack rate (ADAR) in NCR is now at 1.6 and may reach up to 7 by the end of June or first week of July, based on OCTA’s projections.

ADAR pertains to the incidence showing the average number of new cases in a period per 100,000 people.

“Posible ngang tumaas siya to 7. Ibig sabihin, kapag umabot tayo ng mga more or less 1,000 cases per day sa Metro Manila, ay nasa 7 na tayo na attack rate. At that rate or point, medyo mataas na ‘yung level of cases,” he added.

(It is possible that the ADAR will increase to 7. When we reach more or less 1,000 cases per day in Metro Manila, the ADAR is at 7 by then. At that rate or point, the level of cases is already quite high.)

Despite this, David stressed that their forecasts also showed that the hospital bed occupancy in NCR “will remain manageable and no escalation of alert levels at this time.”

Aside from NCR, he said that there is a recorded rise in COVID-19 cases in Cavite, Laguna, Rizal, Benguet, and Iloilo. Nearby provinces may also see an increase in infections “in just a matter of time,” he added.

David earlier said a “weak surge” in COVID-19 cases has started as the seven-day average of new cases in the NCR increased to 212 from June 13 to 19 or 84% higher than the previous week.

Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire on Monday also said more COVID-19 cases are expected to be recorded in the coming weeks as the country is now seeing another “peak” of infections that may be attributed to the entry of the more transmissible Omicron sub variants, the increased mobility in the country, and the waning immunity of the vaccinated population. — RSJ, GMA News