OCTA projects NCR to be at moderate risk by next week

Metro Manila is expected to be at moderate risk for COVID-19 by next week, independent monitoring group OCTA Research said Tuesday.

“At this time nasa low risk pa tayo sa Metro Manila, green pa siya. Pero by next week, we are projecting nasa moderate risk na tayo, yellow,”  OCTA fellow Guido David said in an interview on Laging Handa.

(At this time we are still at low risk in Metro Manila, so it’s still green. But by next week, we are projecting to be at moderate risk, so yellow.)

“So kumbaga, ‘yung current situation natin hindi pa naman siya nangangahulugan magtataas tayo ng alert level pero this is a possibility within the next few weeks,” he added.

(Our current situation does not mean that we need to raise the alert level but this is a possibility within the next few weeks.)

Low risk means the average daily attack rate (ADAR) in an area is less than 1 per 100,000 population while moderate risk means it is between 1 to 7.

COVID-19 cases

According to the OCTA fellow, new COVID-19 cases in the region may increase to 400 to 500 by the end of June.

David said the region recorded 188 cases on Monday.

“So medyo bumibilis ‘yung pagtaas ng bilang ng kaso kasi dati nasa mga 65 cases lang tayo per day tapos baka umabot na siya ng mga 400 to 500 by end of June so bumibilis na talaga ‘yung bilang ng kaso,” he said.

(So the increase in cases is becoming faster because we had 65 cases per day and we might increase to 400 to 500 by the end of June.)

Meanwhile, he said the region’s reproduction number — which refers to the number of people infected by one case — rose to 1.59. 

A reproduction number that is below 1 indicates that the transmission of the virus is slowing down.

David said the positivity rate was recorded at 2.7%.

According to David, the government may need to decrease passenger capacity on public transportation or indoor establishments “at the minimum.”

“Para lang at least lumuwag ng kaonti at hindi masyadong siksikan ‘yung tao sa mga establishments. So ito ‘yung maitututlong ng pagtaas ng alert level,” he said.

(So that it will be a bit spacious and people will not be crowded within establishments. This is what raising the alert level can do.)

He also advised establishments to “hold off” the return to on-site work.

“’Yung sa flexi-work schedule, I agree na siguro pwede i-hold off muna ‘yung pagbabalik ng mga tao sa work from home schedule. Nabalitaan ko kasi sa June 15 maraming work from home sa mga office ay babalik na sa on-site work,” he said.

(For the flexi-work schedule, I agree that we should hold off the return of the public from the home schedule. I heard that many are planning to return to on-site work by June 15.)

David said working from home may help the public save money while fuel prices are high.

Though he defers to the Department of Education, David also suggested the start of face-to-face classes by a month. 

“I think kung August ‘yung face-to-face classes na magsisimula, I’m expecting by that time tapos na itong surge, ‘yung possible surge na nakikita natin ngayon.. pero kung mga June na sila mag start, baka pwedeng i push back nila siguro mga one month or so,” he said.

(I think August is the start of the face-to-face classes. I’m expecting the surge to be over by that time. But if it’s in June, maybe they can push it back by a month or so.) — RSJ, GMA News