OCTA: COVID-19 reproduction number in NCR rises to 1.29

The COVID-19 reproduction number in the National Capital Region (NCR) climbed to 1.29, while the positivity rate also went up to 2.2%, according to OCTA Research group.

In a tweet on Thursday, OCTA Research fellow Dr. Guido David said the situation in NCR has become “more concerning” as the positivity rate increased to 2.2% as of June 8 from 1.5% a week ago.

NCR reproduction number now at 1.29 while positivity rate up to 2.2% (from 1.5% a week ago). The 7-day average in new cases exceeded 100. Public is advised not to be complacent with health protocols. @dzbb @DZAR1026 @allangatus @NewsRmn @News5PH @dzrhnews @PhilstarNews @ali_sotto pic.twitter.com/adVaZEpf2i

— Dr. Guido David (@iamguidodavid) June 9, 2022

David said the reproduction number in the region also increased to 1.29 as of June 6, compared to 1.15 on May 31.

Reproduction rate refers to the number of people infected by one case. A reproduction number that is below 1 indicates that the transmission of the virus is slowing down.

“Yung reproduction number is already at 1.29, it is already considered high. But, we also noticed tumaas yung positivity rate niya, last week nasa 1.5% ngayon nasa 2.2%. Medyo malaki ang pagtaas niya in just a matter of one week,” David said on Lei Alviz’s “24 Oras” report on Friday.

The OCTA research fellow said the seven day average of new cases in the NCR also increased by 28% to 102, the last time the seven-day average was above 100 was on April 8.

The hospital bed occupancy for COVID-19 in Metro Manila also rose to 1,520 or 24% beds occupied on June 8 from 1,372 or 21% beds occupied on June 5.

“Last point, I want to mention is yung hospital occupancy also increased over the past three days, so three days ago parang nadagdagan siya ng 50 COVID beds occupied per day,” he added.

He advised the public to avoid complacency and practice health protocols as the region remained at “low risk.”

“While the situation is still manageable in the NCR, and we remain at low risk there is a chance that this will lead to a further rise in cases in the NCR which will become more concerning,” he said.

“It can lead to a possible small surge or week surge which will be several hundred cases per day sa Metro Manila, a thousand or few thousands per day nationwide. Right now we are not seeing an alarming situation naman sa Metro Manila, we won’t see a Delta or Omicron-like surge,” he added.

Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire said the country remains at low risk for COVID-19 with a positive one-week and two-week growth rate since May 25.

Vergeire said a COVID-19 surge is not likely when asked about the research firm’s remark that the situation in Metro Manila has become more concerning.

She, however, reminded that the threat of the subvariants is present, saying that the Omicron subvariants BA.4 and BA.5 are causing the increase of cases in other countries.

The Philippines on Friday logged 287 new COVID-19 cases, increasing the nationwide COVID-19 tally to 3,692,617.

Based on the DOH’s latest data, the country's active case count continued to increase to 2,697 from 2,529 on Thursday.—LDF, GMA News