NCR sees 'very slow' uptick in COVID-19 cases —OCTA

The National Capital Region (NCR) recorded a “very slow” increase in COVID-19 infections in the recent week as its daily case average went up by 2% from the previous week, independent monitoring group OCTA Research said on Monday.

In a tweet, OCTA Research fellow Dr. Guido David showed data that the daily average of new COVID-19 cases recorded from May 23 to May 29 was 74 — a slight increase of 2% from the 72 recorded from May 16 to May 22.

The one-week average daily attack rate (ADAR) in the region also rose from 0.51 to 0.52, but remained less than 1 or under the “very low” category.

ADAR pertains to the incidence showing the average number of new cases in a period per 100,000 people.

NCR’s reproduction number is, however, now at “moderate” category after posting an increase from 1.02 to 1.08 in the past week.

Its positivity rate also grew from 1.2% to 1.4%, while logging an average of 11,047 tests per day.

Reproduction rate refers to the number of people infected by one case, while positivity rate refers to the percentage of people who were found positive for COVID-19 among the total number of individuals tested.

OCTA reported that the healthcare utilization in NCR also went up from 22% to 23%, but is still under the “very low” category.

Moreover, Guido pointed out that NCR is still at the “low” risk level for the viral disease despite the uptick of COVID-19 infections.

“Overall, NCR remained at low risk. An uptick in cases is observed in the NCR, but the rate of increase in new COVID cases is very slow at this time,” he said.

Mobility, variants

Asked during a Laging Handa briefing of the possible reasons for such an uptick, David said, “It’s possible na ‘yung mobility saka possibly ‘yung waning immunity. Then ‘yung isang main factor diyan sa tingin natin ‘yung panibagong mga subvariant na na-detect na sa bansa natin, ‘yung Omicron BA.4 at ‘yung Omicron BA.2.12.1,” he said.

(It’s possible that it was caused by the mobility of people and their waning immunity. The one main factor that we’re looking at is the detection of the new sub-variants in the country, the Omicron BA.4 and BA.2.12.1.)

On May 21, the Department of Health (DOH) reported that a Filipino who flew in from the Middle East earlier this month was found to be infected with Omicron subvariant BA.4.

The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control sees Omicron BA.4 as a variant of concern, so it can either spread faster or cause worse illness, the agency said.

Meanwhile, on May 17, Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire confirmed that the country has also detected a local transmission of the Omicron subvariant BA.2.12.1, with the new cases found in Western Visayas.

Despite the looming effects of these COVID-19 sub-variants, David explained that it is still too early to determine the trajectory of the viral transmission in the next two weeks or month.

“It’s still possible na mawawala itong uptick, bababa ulit ang bilang ng kaso. It’s also possible na magpapatuloy itong uptick pero bahagya lang siya, at possible din na magpatuloy siya at lumakas siya at talagang pagtaas ng kaso ang makita natin,” he added.

(It’s still possible that this uptick will disappear and the cases will decrease again. It’s also possible that this uptick will continue but will only increase slightly, or will increase further and will pave the way for a high number of cases.)

David noted that OCTA has seen a particular increase in COVID-19 cases in Negros Occidental, Palawan, and Agusan del Norte.

The Philippines on Sunday registered 200 new COVID-19 infections, with its active cases remaining at 2,434.

Based on the DOH’s national COVID-19 vaccination dashboard, at least 151 million doses have already been administered in the country as of May 29.

Of this number, 70.8 million Filipinos are already fully vaccinated against COVID-19, while 66.7 million have received one dose. Some 14 million individuals have also received booster shots. —KG, GMA News