NCR COVID-19 reproduction number decreased to 0.50 —OCTA

The COVID-19 reproduction number in the National Capital Region (NCR) has gone down to 0.50, the OCTA Research group said on Saturday.

The reproduction rate, which refers to the number of people infected by one case, was 0.63 in NCR on Wednesday.

A reproduction number that is below 1 indicates that the transmission of the virus is slowing down.

"The downward trend has slowed in the past four days but new cases still tracking below Jan 20 projections. Public must continue to comply with health protocols," OCTA Research fellow Dr. Guido David said on Twitter.

OCTA noted that NCR recorded 2,256 new COVID-19 cases on Friday, January 28. "This is the lowest daily number since December 31, 2021, when cases were starting to surge in the NCR," it said.

The group also said the one-week growth rate in new COVID-19 cases in NCR was at -69%.

Meanwhile, the seven-day positivity rate in the region also went down to 21%. The positivity rate refers to the percentage of people who were found positive for COVID-19 among the total number of individuals tested.

David said Metro Manila may be placed under moderate risk by January 29.

The Department of Health (DOH) however, on Friday said NCR's risk classification has already dropped to moderate from high risk. NCR was classified at high risk on January 24.

As for further dropping to low risk, David said this "will depend on how quickly cases decrease below 1000 per day." 

"The public must continue to strictly comply with health protocols to sustain the downward momentum," he added.

Cebu City

Meawhile, Cebu City's COVID-19 reproduction number is at 2.03 as of January 25, OCTA Research said. It was 3.94 the previous week.

Positivity rate is at 39%, it added.

"New COVID-19 cases in Cebu City seemed to have peaked and may be on a downward trajectory," OCTA said.

The group said the average daily attack rate (ADAR) in Cebu City was still very high at 62.27 per day per 100,000 for the period January 22 to 28. ADAR pertains to the incidence showing the average number of new cases in a period per 100,000 people.

Healthcare utilization meanwhile was at 60%, considered moderate.

"Cebu City's overall risk level, based on Covidactnow, remained at very high risk. This means the public must continue to comply strictly with public health protocols," David said.

Cebu City new cases moving on a downward trajectory. Reproduction number at 2.03, positivity rate 39%. Risk level is still very high so public is advised to strictly comply with health protocols. @dzbb @News5PH @allangatus @ali_sotto @DZAR1026 @News5PH @NewsRmn @dwiz882 pic.twitter.com/bhc1vjgqrc

— Dr. Guido David (@iamguidodavid) January 29, 2022

The Philippines on Friday logged 18,638 new COVID-19 cases, increasing the nationwide caseload to 3,511,491.

The DOH said 231,658 of these cases are active.

Meanwhile, total recoveries rose to 3,226,032 with 13,106 new individuals recovered from the viral disease.

The DOH also reported 68 new fatalities increasing the death toll to 53,801. —KG, GMA News