2013-14 PBA Philippine Cup preview: Petron Blaze, Barangay Ginebra, Talk 'N Text and San Mig Coffee

The PBA returns starting this Sunday, when the Philippine Cup kicks off another season of local professional hoops. What did your favorite team do during the offseason and what can be expected of them in this campaign? Read on to see how the Petron Blaze Boosters, Barangay Ginebra San Miguel, Talk 'N Text Tropang Texters and San Mig Coffee Mixers are expected to fare.


The on-paper favorites

Barangay Ginebra San Miguel

Last season: 24-28, made the semifinals of the Philippine Cup, the Finals of the Commissioner’s Cup, and the quarterfinals of the Governors’ Cup

Offseason report: Blessed with the number one overall pick, Ginebra enlisted the services of the biggest player in the draft, 6’11” Greg Slaughter. A couple of trades bolstered their bench (Emman Monfort, Jay-R Reyes), while a draft-day deal landed them James Forrester, another athletic wing player.

Outlook: After conferences with mediocre guys manning the paint, Ginebra finally has its center in 6’11” Greg Slaughter, and they get to pair him up with the 6’9” Japeth Aguilar, giving them a pretty intimidating twin towers combination that opposing teams will have a headache dealing with.

Also scary is the fact that those two, along with wing players like Chris Ellis, the aforementioned Forrester, and Mac Baracael, can all finish on the break, something that has to get point guards LA Tenorio and Monfort salivating. Add in the returning Dylan Ababou, whose three-point shooting can spread the floor, and you have a recipe for success.

One constant question mark though will be the long-term health of Mark Caguioa. While the Spark is expected to be ready for the Philippine Cup, two MCL injuries in a row is nothing to sneeze at. While in theory Forrester can absorb Caguioa’s minutes, the team is obviously much stronger with the veteran in the line-up.

Best case: Ginebra runs opposing teams out of the gym, with dunks-a’-plenty courtesy of their high-flyers. Caguioa returns at 100 percent, and gives the team some scoring punch when the game grinds down into the half court. LA Tenorio puts up BPC and MVP type-numbers, and the Barangay finally cops another title

Worst case: Caguioa misses major time due to an assortment of injuries. Slaughter’s adjustment time to the speed and strength of pro defenders takes a while, and he gets beaten handily by former CESAFI rival June Mar Fajardo. Forrester turns out to be a reach, and the mantra of “never say die” only takes the team to the quarterfinals anew.
 

Petron Blaze Boosters

Last season: 29-23, made the quarterfinals of the Philippine Cup and Commissioner’s Cup, made the Finals of the Governors’ Cup

Offseason report: For a change, Petron Blaze had a quiet offseason, just bringing in Chris Ross and Yousef Taha to be their back-ups at point guard and center, respectively, in a pair of minor deals. The team also submitted a slim and slender 12-man roster for the PHL Cup (though maybe that means they’ll be gearing up for a…gasp! Trade!)

Outlook: These previews would be written much differently had Petron beaten sister team San Mig Coffee in the Finals of the Governors’ Cup. Instead, they didn’t, dropping the clincher to the Mixers, and leading to Petronovella getting another chapter, instead of a satisfying conclusion.

Still, Petron learned something from the whole mess, and that is just how good June Mar Fajardo is. The 2012 number one overall pick dominated the Governors’ Cup, putting to good use the lessons he learned during his stint with the national team. And now, this squad is geared to revolve around him - with a bevy of shooters (Marcio Lassiter, Chico Lanete, Ronald Tubid, Chris Lutz) surrounding him, and some rebounding machines (Taha, Arwind Santos, Doug Kramer) to do the dirty work.

Sans imports, the path might be more clear this time for Petron to ride Fajardo all the way to the finish line. However, until they do so, Petron will continue to be defined by turmoil, and how they fall short of a championship.

Best case: Fajardo’s Governors’ Cup run is only the prelude to even more dominance, as the Kraken puts up beastly averages in the neighborhood of 25-18. The shooters knock down open shots with ease, while Arwind Santos fills in all the gaps. Finally we can stop referring to ‘Petronovella’ when they win a title.

Worst case: The influx of height and an offseason to plan against him leads to opposing teams shutting down Fajardo. A good deal of the Boosters’ ball movement came from import Elijah Millsap, and without him, the offense bogs down. Yet another in-season trade disrupts this squad’s chemistry, hurting more than helping, and fostering discontent among fans.
 

The defending champions
 

Talk ’N Text Tropang Texters

Last season: 35-21, won the Philippine Cup, made the semifinals of the Commissioner’s Cup

Offseason report: In an effort to get younger, Talk ’N Text traded for former number one overall pick and Ateneo Blue Eagle Nonoy Baclao, reuniting him with his collegiate head coach Norman Black. During the draft, the team added Eliud Poligrates and Robby Celiz to hopefully bolster their reserves.

Outlook: Despite a new head coach, the Tropang Texters won a historic third straight All-Filipino title, putting them in an elite class. However, their import-reinforced conferences were very different. Not only did their imports fail to fit in, injuries, and fatigue from the Gilas Pilipinas campaign resulted in TnT missing out on the postseason for the first time in a long time, during the 2013 Governors’ Cup.

With that said, the early exit did give Talk ’N Text more rest, something at a premium, given how the short the turnaround between seasons was this time out. The hope is that the Texters are rejuvenated once more and ready to defend their title, with a fourth Philippine Cup crown at stake.

Like some of the other teams mentioned here, Talk ’N Text is deep, but their depth comes with a great amount of championship experience, giving them an extra edge. On the flipside though, their players are starting to get long in the tooth, and one serious injury could derail them completely. Younger guys, including Jai Reyes and Sean Anthony, could help, especially now that they’re more integrated with the team, as opposed to during the Governors’ Cup, when Larry Fonacier, Ranidel De Ocampo, Jayson Castro, and Jimmy Alapag were all called up for Gilas duty and couldn’t practice with them. The return of Kelly Williams from a second battle against his auto-immune disease is another big lift as well.

Best case: The machine-like efficiency of the “flying boredom machine,” as another of my colleagues dubbed it, systematically annihilates the opposition, but this time, they get a considerable spark from the youth corps, allowing the veteran warhorses to conserve their energy for the postseason games.

Worst case: Injuries derail Talk ’N Text’s conference, as one or more of their old reliables gets hurt and can’t return in time to help his team’s cause. The young guns get squeezed out of the rotation because of mistakes, and team management is forced to accelerate their rebuild by trading away one or two of their core players in a bid to remain competitive.
 

San Mig Coffee Mixers

Last season: 38-26, made the semifinals of the Philippine Cup and Commissioner’s Cup, won the Governors’ Cup

Offseason report: Fresh off winning the Governors’ Cup title, San Mig Coffee added some height to their roster in the draft, selecting 6’6” Ian Sangalang with the second overall pick. They then picked forward JR Cawaling in a later round, and executed a trade involving rookie bigs, which saw them land Isaac Holstein.

Outlook: After limiting June Mar Fajardo en route to a title in the third conference last season, San Mig Coffee went out and added height themselves, with Sangalang and Holstein coming in. While Holstein projects to be a more long-term project, Sangalang is a pretty polished operator in the post. Should he get playing time, he could give Coach Tim Cone’s triangle offense a new wrinkle or two, and make things easier for their perimeter guys.

Speaking of perimeter guys, the shooting percentage of marquee star James Yap has been slipping since 2008, falling to a new career-low of 35.8 percent last season. Sixth man PJ Simon has also been on a downward skid, going from a high of 50.6 percent in 2010-11 to 46.3 percent last season. Yap though has made up for it somewhat by bolstering his efforts on the defensive end, but both guards need to make opponents pay for collapsing on the interior.

That said, it might just be other guards doing the shooting, as Mark Barroca’s numbers sky-rocketed in his sophomore season, while Alex Mallari found a place with SMC. With another year of the triangle offense under their belt, these two could conceivably still get better, raising the ceiling for Cone’s charges.

Best case: James Yap rebounds with one of the best shooting conferences he's had in a while. Ian Sangalang is even better than advertised and commands double-teams. Marc Pingris does Pingris things, and Tim Cone is two steps ahead of everyone, piloting the Mixers to a championship

Worst case: Yap's shooting woes get even worse. Sangalang struggles mightily, as does Holstein, while Justin Chua, whom they traded to get Holstein, flourishes. Barroca fails to replicate his strong numbers, and the team flops, while trying to match the records of their flashier sister squads.

 
 

- GMA News