NBA semifinals preview: #2 San Antonio Spurs vs #6 Golden State Warriors

Regular season series: Tied 2-2

• January 18: Warriors 88-95 @Spurs
• February 22: Spurs 101-107 @Warriors (OT)
• March 20: Warriors 93-104 @Spurs
• April 15: Spurs 106-116 @Warriors
   

A little history lesson - the last time the Golden State Warriors made it out of the first round in 2007, the San Antonio Spurs went on to win the championship. Flash-forward to 2013, and with all the major injuries and upsets happening around the league, the rock-steady Spurs are suddenly the prohibitive favorites to win the West once again.

If the series between the Spurs and Warriors could be condensed into a single number, it would be 29. That figure represents the dominance of Tim Duncan playing on his homecourt, a sterling 29-0 record against the Warriors over his 16-season career. Spanning from the days of Latrell Sprewell, to Antawn Jamison, to Jason Richardson, and now to Stephen Curry, the Warriors have been forcefully tamed in the confines of the Alamodome and the AT&T Center.

The Spurs made quick work of the Lakers in the first round, sweeping a severely depleted cast with clockwork precision that earned the Spurs a week’s worth of recovery for their battered stars. Meanwhile, the Warriors challenged the enduring status quo of basketball after dispatching the third-seeded Nuggets. With the upset, the Warriors proved, at least for one series, that a torrid outside shooting game can overcome a team that plays at a breakneck pace and dominates the paint.

With Duncan shedding weight and looking as fit as his rookie season built, the 'old reliable' has been posting double-doubles with relative ease all year long. In the first round, it seemed that he would be at a disadvantage against Los Angeles’ twin towers, but Duncan’s creaky demeanor masks his craftiness. How else would Duncan have frustrated Dwight Howard on both ends of the floor, to the point that the latter got ejected in game four?

And then there is Tony Parker (22.3 points, 3.3 rebounds, 6.5 assists), ball-handler extraordinaire, the motor that keeps Spurs coach Gregg Popovich’s juggernaut firing on all cylinders. When Parker is in sync with his teammates, he can find creases in the lane and will either stop on a dime for a high-arcing floater or kick it out as necessary to lurking corner spotters such as Danny Green and Kawhi Leonard.

Parker remains on the fringe of MVP consideration annually because of the high efficiency he brings to the Spurs. His scoring average has spiked up by four points since 2009-2010, and his free throw rate is at a career high as well. He can also go for full games without a single turnover even, if he has one of the highest usage rates among point guards this season (27.7 percent). Curry will definitely have his hands full containing one of the shrewdest playmakers of this generation.

How San Antonio adjusts to Golden State’s small ball approach will be interesting to keep tabs on. Except for Andrew Bogut, the Warriors look intent to run the Spurs out of the building with a youthful trio of Klay Thompson, Harrison Barnes, and Draymond Green to flank Curry. The Spurs will be expected to keep up with the Warriors’ fun-and-gun approach, since both teams are among the fastest in pace generated.

Speaking of Bogut, the Spurs will need to send out their frontcourt platoon against the Aussie. Bogut experienced a career renaissance in game six against the Nuggets, scoring 14 points and grabbing 21 rebounds in the series-clinching victory. After feeling out his way, Bogut finally showed that he can hold his own against a towering Nuggets frontline and his physicality must continue in this round for the Warriors to remain competitive. The burden on Bogut to defend well and fill in David Lee’s shoes will resonate loudly throughout this series.

What Warriors coach Mark Jackson has to be worried about is Thompson’s dip in shooting, mostly a by-product of first-time postseason jitters. Thompson, who is normally lights out at 41.4 percent from downtown, has been struggling even on open looks, connecting on only 34.3 percent through six playoff games. If Thompson continues to struggle, this will force Jackson’s hand to play Jarrett Jack alongside Curry. Jack has been a postseason revelation as he sees nearly 40 minutes a game while scoring almost 20 points in the process.

The question that hangs in the air from the diehards down to the most casual fan is whether Curry can continue his flamethrower tendencies. Curry, who shot 45.3 percent from long range during the regular season, and is shooting 43.4 percent in the playoffs, remains a threat in this series because he produces enough assists to keep the defense honest. After all, it would speak volumes of a team’s defensive deficiency if they have to send help to double-team a point guard. Expect Popovich to throw different covers at him, from Leonard’s massive mitts to a musical chairs rotation of Gary Neal, Nando De Colo, and Patty Mills.

The Spurs have history on their side to reprise their Western Conference Finals run. This team has enough three-point shooters to neutralize Curry’s one-man show and a deeper bench to outlast a seven-deep Warriors collective. The Warriors’ inexperience will be exploited over and over again, and every little mistake will prove costly. Whatever errors the Warriors got away with against the Nuggets will be seen in broad daylight in the middle of Texas.

This series will be the rare instance of silver beating gold.

Prediction: Spurs in 5



- AMD, GMA News