How Gilas Pilipinas can advance to the 2nd round of the 2023 FIBA World Cup

With Gilas Pilipinas having two losses now in the 2023 FIBA World Cup, the chances of advancing to the second round are getting slimmer.

However, the fight is not yet over for the Philippines.

After falling to the Dominican Republic, 87-81, and to Angola, 80-70, the national team is 0-2 in Group A behind Dominican Republic (2-0), Italy (1-1), and Angola (1-1).

Things don't look good, but Tuesday’s games will determine the fate of the Philippines in the World Cup.

Read more | FIBA World Cup Preview: A Serbian correspondent breaks down Gilas Pilipinas vs Italy

So how can Gilas still advance to the second round?

It will require a scenario in which all three of Gilas, Italy, and Angola to fall into a three-way tie at 1-2 and the Philippines to have the best quotient among the three teams in games played against each other.

That's no easy task and these are the things that must fall into place for this to happen.

Requirement 1: Dominicana wins over Angola

Karl-Anthony Towns and the Dominican Republic squad can boost Gilas’ chances of advancing to the next round by beating Angola.

If the Dominicans win, they sweep the group and automatically clinch the top spot of Group A to proceed to the next round. It also knocks Angola down to 1-2, giving Gilas an opportunity to force a tie in the standings.

If Angola wins, however, they will move up alongside Dominican Republic with two victories, eliminating Gilas from contention as the best the Philippines can do is finish with one win in the group phase.

However, an Angola loss in the 4 p.m. game is not all Gilas needs. They will also have to take care of business in the 8 p.m. contest against Italy.

Requirement 2: Gilas beats Italy by 13 or more

Now comes the tricky part.

For the triple-tie at 1-2 to come to fruition, Angola needs to lose and Gilas needs to beat Italy.

That will then require FIBA's tiebreak rules to take effect giving Gilas a chance to take second place in the group.

The first tiebreak will be the three teams' record against each other, but since in this scenario, all three teams will hold one win and one loss against the other two teams, then the tie will not be resolved there. The next tiebreak will be the point-differences of the teams in the games between them.

Angola already has its point-difference set with their 14-point loss to Italy and 10-point win over the Philippines resulting in a -4.

Right now Italy is at +14 while Gilas is at -10, but this can still change depending on the result of their upcoming head-to-head game.

A Gilas win by 13 points will give them them a superior quotient of +3 while Italy will have a +1, both of them ahead of Angola. If, however, they win by 12 or less, then it will be Italy advancing to the next round with the best point-difference.

That's the scenario that puts the Philippines through to the second round: an Angola loss to Dominican Republic and a Gilas win by 13 points or more over Italy.

(Update: a 12-point win by Gilas would result in a tie in the quotient, which would result in another tiebreaker — most points scored in games between the tied teams. In this scenario, Gilas could also advance to the next round, according to the FIBA website.)

Now, this is easier said than done as the world no. 40 Philippines needs to hack out a 13-point win against the 10th-ranked federation Italy.

Thirteen points is a lot against a Top 10 team in the world, but 'Puso' and 'Never Say Die' are just some of the Filipinos' favorite phrases. And it will be time to put those mindsets to the test on Tuesday.

Angola takes on the Dominicans at 4 p.m. at the Smart Araneta Coliseum, while the Philippines will try to overcome the tall order at 8 p.m.

—JMB, GMA Integrated News