With Olympic spot up for grabs in FIBA World Cup, a Serbian correspondent mulls Gilas' chances

For Gilas Pilipinas' campaign in the 2023 FIBA World Cup, GMA News Online connected with Milos Jovanovic, a veteran Serbian sportswriter with an interest in Philippine basketball, to help break things down from an outside perspective. Read his previews of the Philippines-Dominican Republic game here, the Philippines-Angola game here, and the Philippines-Italy game here.

The FIBA Basketball World Cup is quite an occasion. Teams from all over the globe gather to compete, with the prestigious title of World Champion being the key goal. And that title, let me tell you, is quite something.

I was fortunate enough, at least when basketball is considered, to call the country of a five-time world champion my country of birth. I wasn’t there when the old Yugo won it in 1970, or in 1978 in Manila. I remember the 1990 World Cup in Argentina, but I was well of age to recall every minute of our World Cup victories in Athens in 1998 and Indianapolis in 2002. The latter came after beating team USA, featuring the likes of Ben Wallace, Jermaine O’Neal, Paul Pierce and Reggie Miller, in the quarterfinal. Winning the World Cup – or at least, enjoying the victory earned by my countrymen – is something I have learned to appreciate firsthand.

But the pursuit of the ultimate goal is not the only thing that teams worry about at the Cup. If you don’t end up first, you might end up on the podium still and get a silver or a bronze medal for your efforts.

And if that evades you as well, then there is one last glimmer of hope which you can claim — and it’s not an insigificant one at all.

As of 2019, FIBA has expanded the World Cup into a 32-strong format, and with that change came another one as well – the system of Olympic quotas also got refreshed. Back in 2014, it was only the winner, alongside the host, who got an automatic bye into the Olympic tournament, which is universally regarded as the Holy Grail of international basketball (just take note who showed up this year, and then compare with team rosters in Paris next summer – believe me, it will be quite some difference between the two).

But now, the game is played slightly differently – and the World Cup now works as well as a seeding contest for future Olympic torch-bearers.

Right now, there is only one team which is certain to feature next year, and that is of course France – being the host. The 2023 FIBA World Cup in Philippines, Japan, and Indonesia will provide us with seven more contestants, while the rest will duke it out through grinding OQT’s slated to happen somewhere next year in June or July.

The seven passes are divided as follows – two each go to best placed European and American (both North and South) sides, while Africa, Asia and Oceania will get one each. And, to get this one out of the way, Australia counts under Oceania when it comes to Olympic seeding.

What does this all mean, you might ask? Well, let me translate this for you – this means that the Gilas Pilipinas are staring at their best shot in ages to make the Olympic basketball tournament.

The last time Filipino cagers graced the Olympic hardwood, the world was a slightly different place. You could smoke on the airliners – heck, you could smoke and not get frowned upon. Petrol probably costed a fraction of what it was today, TV sets were mainly black and white and William Friedkin’s masterpiece The French Connection swept the 44th Academy Awards.

I’ll spare you the Googling – it was in Munich back in 1972. The former Ysmael Steel standout Jimmy “Mr. Cool” Mariano was the captain and flag bearer at the opening ceremony, and he lead the team which featured Bogs Adornado, Joy Cleofas, Manny Paner and Danny Florencio to a 1-6 record in the pool play, beating Senegal 68-62 for their lone win. Later on, they managed to beat Japan in a 13th place tussle with a score of 82 to 73.

But let’s get back on-topic. Nobody, I would presume, expects Coach Chot and his boys to win the World Cup. However, sneaking into Paris could be on the cards…and for that, they might need mere two wins.

There are a total of six Asian sides in the tournament – eight with Australia and New Zealand, but those, as agreed, we won’t count as Oceania has their own Olympic seed. The teams, which are all rank outsiders in their groups, are as follows – China, Iran, Japan, Jordan, Lebanon... and, of course, the Philippines. The best placed of those will delight their families with postcards of Arc de Triomphe and Notre Dame come next year. And it might only take passing the first phase. But what are the odds?

Jordan, for one, won’t make it. Their pool consists of United States, Greece and New Zealand. The Arab squad has one strong player in lieu of former Fenerbahce Istanbul center Ahmed Al-Dwairi (or Ahmed Duveriouglu, as they call him in Turkey), and getting one over the Tall Blacks might be on the cards, but their chances versus USA are non-existent, and I doubt Greece gives them a game either. One down, then.

Japan, granted, is the host nation in Okinawa, but their chances don’t look great either. With Rui Hachimura quitting for personal reasons, the Japanese can only hope that someone from their pool has an off day... and by off, we mean something like shoot 0-for-83 from the field. No disrespect meant here, but in a group which also features Germany, one of gold medal favourites, Australia, and a Finland side featuring the rapid-firing Lauri Markannen of Utah Jazz, the most you can expect is to stay dignified in defeat. Two down.

Iran is a big name in Asian basketball. The former Gilas coach Rajko Toroman famously helmed Iran to their first-ever Asian gold back in 2007, which they followed up four more Asian Cup medals in years that followed. But that was then, and now, well, Iran ain’t what it used to be. Their pool is a slightly more forgiving one, and Ivory Coast could be a winnable card, but Brazil and Spain are likely to prevail over them easily. Three down.

There is a lot to like about Lebanese basketball. They are legitimately hoops-mad, with local club derbies attracting massive crowds. They really love their basketball, and they are passionate about it. But passion and tradition won’t cut it in this "Group of Death", which features the powerhouse squads of France and Canada (feat. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and RJ Barrett), as well as the dark horse of Latvia (albeit without Kristaps Porzingis). Right now, there’s more chance of me making the Gilas roster than Lebanon getting out of here alive, so that’s... four down.

So who’s left? The lone biggest threat to this masterplan could well be the old Filipino rival that is China. The Chinese glory days of Yao Ming, Wang Zhi Zhi, Mengke Bateer and Yi Jianlian are long gone, but a new generation is emerging – legendary Serbian player and later coach Aleksandar Djordjevic was tasked with reforming Chinese basketball, and his squad is gelling along nicely.

They also got a proper shot in the arm with the addition of NBA player Kyle Anderson, known as Li Kaier in Chinese, who will definitely help them a lot. And their task is slightly easier than the Gilas one – they need to emerge out of a group featuring Serbia, Puerto Rico and South Sudan. They’re very much odds against to beat the Serbians, but the other two? It might well happen.

Back to Gilas now. For them, the path to Paris 2024 branches out in three directions.

One, to pass their group with all the other Asians failing, making them automatically the best-placed Asian nation in the field. The second scenario involves all Asian teams flunking their groups, which would open a massive battle royale in the 17-32 classification bracket, involving some potentially memorable games along the way.

And third? Well... the third one might be the juiciest. Because, should China and Philippines both survive the first round, they will end up playing each other in the newly-formed Group I, setting up a winner-take-it-all deathmatch with the Olympic visa at stake. And just how memorable that one might be?

Paris might well be 11 thousand kilometers away from Manila today, but in a fortnight? Who knows. As always, it’s down to the hard-working dozen wearing Gilas jerseys to shorten that distance. So cheer them on, Filipinos and Filipinas. They need you now more than ever. And if it all works out, see you in France.

—JMB, GMA Integrated News