Climate change ‘supercharged’ the parade of typhoons the Philippines experienced in November

The Philippines experienced a parade of six typhoons within a month, and according to a study by World Weather Attribution (WWA), climate change had a lot to do with the unusual weather event.

Released this week, the WWA study found that climate change made the conditions that formed and fueled the typhoons nearly twice as likely. 

“The analysis also found that the typhoon-favoring conditions will continue to increase as the climate warms, boosting the chances of destructive typhoons hitting the Philippines in the future,” the study said.

The Philippines contended with six typhoons in a span of a month, beginning with Typhoon Kristine on October 24.

Ahead of its landfall in Isabela, several parts of Luzon were placed under Signal No. 3, but it was the havoc it wrecked in Naga, bringing in 2.5 months worth of rain in just 24 hours, that really made its presence felt. 

Supertyphoon Leon followed, lashing out in Batanes, which was placed under Signal No. 5, and not long after, Typhoon Marce brought major destruction in Cagayan, including a whopping P16.2M in argiculture damages. Typhoon Nika and Supertyphoons Ofel and Pepito soon followed wrecking a collective infrastructure damage worth P469M.

"While these events were destructive in their own right as an individual event, it was the successive nature of the storms that led to there being really severe impacts in the Northern Philippines," Doctor Ben Clarke, Researcher at the Centre for  Environmental Policy, Imperial College London, said at a press briefing on Wednesday afternoon (Philippine time).

“We have not seen a succession of events elsewhere,” he added.

At the press briefing, Clair Barnes, researcher at Grantham Institute - Climate Change and the Environment at Imperial College in London, noted how four typhoons simultaneous occurring in the Pacific basin was a first since records began in 1951. She also pointed out how Novembers usually just see 3 named storms, "with only one of those reaching super typhoon status." 

Because of climate change, the rate of major tropical cyclones making landfall, and the conditions leading to the high number of tropical cyclones from September to November in the area studied have all increased, the study found. It also highlighted that "winds have become more likely and more intense."

“The likelihood of subsequent storms making landfall in the Philippines has increased, and the potential intensity conditions leading to such events have become and will continue to become more intense," the study added, saying "it is therefore also overwhelmingly likely that the impacts of the tropical cyclones during September to November 2024 were more severe as a result of climate change."

According to Clarke, the conditions in which the storms developed in 2024 have become about 70% more likely due to the present warming of 1.3C.

"So that means that the storms were more likely to develop more strongly and reach the Philippines at a higher intensity than they otherwise would have," he said.

At the press briefing, Clarke emphasized that climate change amplified the "conditions conducive to consecutive events like this."

"We're now more likely to see multiple major landfalling events in a given year in the Philippines. We'll also see more such increases as we continue to burn fossil fuels," he said.

Greenhouse gas emissions from burning fossil fuels is the main cause of global warming and climate change. The Paris Agreement of 2015 has set the warming limit to 1.5C pre-industrial levels. At the moment, the science community is saying we are already at 1.3C. 

The WWA study was conducted by 12 researches including scientists from universities and meteorological agencies in the Philippines, the Netherlands, Sweden and United Kingdom.

It has yet to be peer reviewed but the findings align with Climate Central’s study, published in November, that said the warmer ocean temperatures that allowed for intensified typhoons, were made up to 30 times more likely. By human-caused climate change.

According to Climate Central, the warm ocean temperature that caused Typhoon Marce was 10 times more likely caused by climate change, while Nika's was up to 30 times more likely caused by climate change

Ofel was up to 6 times more likely caused by climate change, and Pepito up to 40 times more likely caused by climate change.

The six-typhoon event that the Philippines experienced took place as nearly 200 nations negotiated a new climate finance goal in Baku, Azerbaijan for the 29th Conference of Parties (COP29). Developing countries like the Philippines were clear with their $1.3T demand, which should help them contend with freak weather events not unlike the six successive typhoons that the Philippines experienced, adapt to warming climate, and bring them their greenhouse gas emissions. But COP29 could only deliver a $300-B.

But speaking to GMA News Online before the gavel dropped on the $300B finance goal, DENR's Noralene M. Uy, Ph.D, Assistant Secretary for Policy, Planning, International Affairs and Climate Change said there is nothing to be worried about even if the 1.3-T demand was not met. 

"On our own, gumagawa tayo ng paraan, even without finance flows from developed countries (On our way, we are making ways, even without finance flows from developed countries)."

"The Philippines has a more pro-active approach. Through bilateral ang process natin, from developed countries din naman yun and we are getting support. Through DENR pa lang, maraming lumalapit na. They really want to support (The Philippines has a more pro-active approach. Our process is bilateral, which also come from developed countries. We are getting support. With DENR alone, there are many interested parties who really want to support)," Uy said.

"We have unique funds also like People's Survival Fund na stregnthen na and medyo maayos na," Uy continued, adding there has been a replenishment of the fund for 2025. "May call na rin naman for next year, marami na naman tayong mabibigayn na LGUs and organizations to work on adaptation."

"May mechanisms tayo. Kaya 'wag tayo mas masyado magalala (We have the mechanisms so let's not be too worried)," Uy said.

— GMA Integrated News