Signal No. 5 up over parts of Aurora, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya due to Pepito

PAGASA on early Sunday afternoon warned of a “potentially dangerous and life threatening” situation in Aurora province as its central portion was placed under Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS) No. 5 while Super Typhoon Pepito (international name: Man-Yi) maintained its strength ahead of landfall.

As of 2 p.m., the state weather bureau said that TCWS No. 5 was raised over these areas, meaning typhoon-force winds with speeds of 185 km/h or higher may prevail in the next 12 hours and pose extreme threat to life and property:

• the central portion of Aurora (Dipaculao, Baler, Dinalungan, Maria Aurora, Casiguran, San Luis),
• the southern portion of Quirino (Nagtipunan), and
• and the southern portion of Nueva Vizcaya (Alfonso Castañeda).

Meanwhile, these areas were placed under TCWS No. 4:

• the rest of Aurora,
• the rest of Nueva Vizcaya,
• the rest of Quirino,
• the southern portion of Ifugao (Kiangan, Lamut, Tinoc, Asipulo, Lagawe),
• Benguet,
• the southern portion of Ilocos Sur (Alilem, Sugpon, Suyo, Santa Cruz, Tagudin),
• La Union,
• the eastern portion of Pangasinan (Sison, Tayug, Binalonan, San Manuel, Asingan, San Quintin, Santa Maria, Natividad, San Nicolas, Balungao, Pozorrubio, Laoac, San Jacinto, San Fabian, Manaoag, City of Urdaneta, Rosales, Umingan, Mangaldan, Mapandan, Villasis, Santo Tomas),
• the northern portion of Nueva Ecija (Gabaldon, Laur, Bongabon, Pantabangan, Rizal, General Mamerto Natividad, Lupao, San Jose City, Llanera, Carranglan, Science City of Muñoz, Talugtug, Cuyapo), and
• the northern and eastern portion of Polillo Islands (Panukulan, Burdeos, Patnanungan, and Jomalig).

These areas above may face typhoon-force winds ranging 118 to 184 km/h in the next 12 hours that may have significant to severe threat to life and property.

TCWS No. 3, on the other hand, was hoisted over these areas:

• the southern portion of Isabela (San Agustin, Jones, Echague, San Guillermo, Angadanan, Alicia, San Mateo, Ramon, San Isidro, City of Santiago, Cordon, Dinapigue, Roxas, San Manuel, Aurora, Cabatuan, City of Cauayan, Luna),
• the rest of Ifugao,
• Mountain Province,
• the southern portion of Abra (Tubo, Luba, Pilar, Villaviciosa, San Isidro, Pidigan, Langiden, San Quintin, Bangued, Manabo),
• the rest of Ilocos Sur,
• the rest of Pangasinan,
• the northern and eastern portions of Tarlac (Paniqui, La Paz, Moncada, City of Tarlac, Gerona, Pura, San Clemente, Santa Ignacia, Victoria, Camiling, Concepcion, Ramos, San Manuel, Anao),
• the rest of Nueva Ecija,
• the northern portion of Bulacan (Doña Remedios Trinidad, San Miguel), and
• the northern portion of Quezon (Infanta, General Nakar) including the rest of Polillo Islands.

Storm-force winds ranging 89 to 117 km/h may be experienced in these areas in the next 18 hours, resulting in moderate to significant threat to life and property.

The following are under TCWS No. 2, which means gale-force winds ranging 62 to 88 km/h in the next 24 hours may be experienced, with wind impacts possibly resulting in minor to moderate threat to life and property.

• the rest of Isabela,
• the southwestern portion of mainland Cagayan (Enrile, Tuao, Solana, Tuguegarao City, Piat, Rizal),
• Kalinga,
• the southern portion of Apayao (Conner, Kabugao),
• the rest of Abra,
• Ilocos Norte,
• Zambales,
• Bataan,
• Pampanga,
• the rest of Bulacan,
• Metro Manila,
• Rizal,
• Cavite,
• Laguna,
• the central and eastern portions of Quezon (Pitogo, Buenavista, Lucena City, Calauag, Pagbilao, Tiaong, Lopez, Guinayangan, Unisan, General Luna, Plaridel, Quezon, San Antonio, Alabat, Candelaria, Lucban, Sampaloc, Padre Burgos, Sariaya, City of Tayabas, Macalelon, Mauban, Dolores, Perez, Agdangan, Gumaca, Atimonan, Real, Tagkawayan),
• Camarines Norte, and
• the northwestern portion of Camarines Sur (Del Gallego, Ragay, Lupi, Sipocot).

Lastly, TCWS No. 1 was raised over the following:

• the rest of mainland Cagayan,
• the rest of Apayao,
• Batangas,
• the northern portion of Occidental Mindoro (Abra de Ilog, Paluan) including Lubang Islands,
• the northern portion of Oriental Mindoro (Puerto Galera, San Teodoro, Naujan, Baco, Victoria, Socorro, Pinamalayan, Gloria, Pola, City of Calapan),
• the northwestern portion of Romblon (Banton, Corcuera, Concepcion),
• Marinduque,
• the rest of Quezon,
• the rest of Camarines Sur,
• Catanduanes,
• Albay,
• the northern portion of Sorsogon (Donsol, Pilar, Castilla, City of Sorsogon, Prieto Diaz), and
• Burias Island.

Strong winds from 39 to 61 km/h may be expected in these areas within the next 36 hours. Wind impacts may result in minimal to minor threat to life and property.

The center of the eye of Pepito was last estimated to be located at 1 p.m. over the coastal waters of Baler, Aurora, with maximum sustained winds of 185 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 230 km/h.

It was moving northwestward at 20 km/h and has strong to typhoon-force winds that extend outwards up to 300 km from the center.

Track, intensity

According to PAGASA, Pepito will move generally west northwestward or northwestward and is seen to make landfall in the vicinity of Aurora between 2:00 p.m. and 5:00 p.m. on Sunday.

Afterwards, it will cross the northern portion of Central Luzon and the southern portion of Northern Luzon via the upland regions of the Sierra Madre, Caraballo, and Cordillera Central between this afternoon and evening.

The super typhoon is also forecast to exit the landmass of Luzon on Sunday night or early Monday morning.

Over the West Philippine Sea, Pepito will continue moving generally west northwestward on Monday. It may exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) region on Monday morning or noon.

Outside the PAR region, the tropical cyclone will turn more westward or west southwestward on Tuesday under the influence of an incoming northeasterly wind surge.

PAGASA said that heavy rainfall, severe winds, and storm surge may still be experienced in localities outside the landfall point and the forecast confidence cone. The track may also still shift within the limit of the forecast confidence cone.

Pepito will also make landfall as a super typhoon. Significant weakening will occur during its passage over mainland Luzon on Sunday.

Further weakening will also occur as Pepito moves over the West Philippine Sea due to the incoming northeasterly wind surge.

Coastal waters

There is a high risk of life-threatening storm surge with peak surge heights exceeding 3.0 m in the next 48 hours over the low-lying or exposed coastal localities of Ilocos Region (western coast), Isabela, Central Luzon, Metro Manila, Calabarzon, Marinduque, and Bicol Region.

A gale warning was hoisted over the eastern and western seaboards of Luzon.

Up to very rough, high, or very high seas are forecast over the following coastal waters:

• Up to 14.0 m: The northern and eastern seaboards of Polillo Islands; the seaboard of Aurora
• Up to 12.0 m: The seaboard of Camarines Norte
• Up to 9.0 m: The seaboard of northern Quezon
• Up to 8.0 m: The seaboard of Isabela
• Up to 7.0 m: The northern and eastern seaboards of Catanduanes; the northern seaboard of Camarines Sur
• Up to 5.0 m: The eastern seaboards of mainland Cagayan, Camarines Sur, and Albay; the remaining seaboards of Polillo Islands and Catanduanes
• Up to 4.5 m: The seaboards of Sorsogon and Northern Samar; the eastern seaboard of Eastern Samar; the remaining seaboards of Camarines Sur, Albay, and Quezon; the seaboards of Ilocos Region, Masbate including Burias and Ticao Islands, and Marinduque

Due to this, sea travel is risky for all types or tonnage of vessels, and all mariners must remain in port or, seek shelter or harbor as soon as possible until winds and waves subside.

Effects, preparations

One person was reported to have died in Daet, Camarines Norte due to the effects of Pepito, according to its Municipal Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Office.

Classes for Monday, November 18, 2024, have been suspended in some areas due to Super Typhoon Pepito (international name: Man-Yi).

Some flights were also canceled for Sunday, November 17.

Videos showed a storm surge occurred in Polillo Islands, Quezon on Sunday.

Four Luzon dams opened their gates in preparation for Pepito's heavy rains.

Meanwhile, the governments of Aurora, Baguio City, and Metro Manila laid out preparations and evacuations in anticipation of Pepito's onslaught. —KG, GMA Integrated News