Signal No. 5 still up over Calaguas Islands, part of Polillo Islands due to Pepito

Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS) No. 5 remained hoisted over Calaguas Islands and the eastern portion of Polillo Islands (Patnanungan, Jomalig) on Sunday morning as Super Typhoon Pepito (international name: Man-Yi) moved over the sea east of Quezon, PAGASA said.

The state weather bureau warned that areas under TCWS No. 5 will experience typhoon-force winds with speeds of 185 km/h or higher in the next 12 hours, posing extreme threat to life and property.

As of 8 a.m., the following areas are also under TCWS No. 4:

• the northernmost portion of Camarines Sur (Siruma),
• the rest of Camarines Norte,
• the northern portion of mainland Quezon (General Nakar, Infanta),
• the rest of Polillo Islands,
• the central and southern portions of Aurora (Dingalan, San Luis, Maria Aurora, Baler, Dipaculao, Dinalungan),
• the eastern portion of Nueva Ecija (General Tinio, Gabaldon, Laur, Bongabon, Palayan City, Pantabangan, Rizal, General Mamerto Natividad),
• the southeastern portion of Nueva Vizcaya (Alfonso Castañeda), and
• the southern portion of Quirino (Nagtipunan).

These areas will face typhoon-force winds ranging 118 to 184 km/h in the next 12 hours that may have significant to severe threat to life and property.

Meanwhile, TCWS No. 3 was raised over these areas:

• the northern portion of Camarines Sur (Sipocot, Ragay, Magarao, Del Gallego, Libmanan, Naga City, Bombon, Lupi, Cabusao, Calabanga, Goa, San Jose, Lagonoy, Presentacion, Caramoan, Garchitorena, Tinambac, Canaman, Camaligan),
• the western portion of Catanduanes (Caramoran, Pandan, San Andres),
• the eastern portion of Quezon (Calauag, Guinayangan, Tagkawayan, Lopez, Quezon, Perez, Alabat, Gumaca, Plaridel, Atimonan, Mauban, Sampaloc, Real),
• the eastern portion of Laguna (Santa Maria, Famy, Mabitac, Pakil, Pangil, Siniloan, Paete, Kalayaan, Lumban, Cavinti),
• the eastern and central portions of Rizal (Pililla, Tanay, City of Antipolo, Rodriguez, Baras, San Mateo, Morong, Teresa),
• the rest of Aurora,
• the eastern and central portions of Bulacan (Norzagaray, San Miguel, San Ildefonso, San Rafael, Doña Remedios Trinidad, Angat, City of San Jose del Monte, Santa Maria, Pandi, Baliuag, Bustos, Pulilan, Plaridel),
• the northeastern portion of Pampanga (Candaba, Arayat, Magalang, San Luis, San Simon, Mexico, Santa Ana, Apalit, Santo Tomas, City of San Fernando, Mabalacat City, Angeles City),
• the rest of Nueva Ecija,
• Tarlac,
• the northern portion of Zambales (Santa Cruz, Candelaria, Masinloc, Palauig),
• the rest of Nueva Vizcaya,
• the rest of Quirino,
• the southern portion of Isabela (San Agustin, Jones, Echague, San Guillermo, Angadanan, Alicia, San Mateo, Ramon, San Isidro, City of Santiago, Cordon),
• the central and southern portions of Ilocos Sur (Alilem, Sugpon, Cervantes, Suyo, Tagudin, Narvacan, Quirino, Sigay, Gregorio del Pilar, San Emilio, Santa Cruz, Salcedo, Banayoyo, City of Candon, Galimuyod, Santa Lucia, Lidlidda, Santa Maria, Burgos, Santiago, San Esteban, Nagbukel),
• La Union,
• Pangasinan,
• Benguet,
• Ifugao,
• the western portion of Mountain Province (Sabangan, Bauko, Tadian, Bontoc, Sagada, Besao, Sadanga, Barlig), and
• the southern portion of Abra (Tubo, Luba, Pilar, Villaviciosa, San Isidro).

Storm-force winds ranging 89 to 117 km/h may face these areas in the next 18 hours, resulting in moderate to significant threat to life and property.

The following areas are under TCWS No. 2:

• Albay,
• the northern portion of Marinduque (Santa Cruz, Boac, Mogpog, Torrijos),
• the rest of Quezon,
• the rest of Laguna,
• the rest of Rizal,
• Cavite,
• the northern portion of Batangas (City of Tanauan, Santo Tomas, Talisay, Lipa City, Malvar, Balete, Mataasnakahoy, Laurel, Padre Garcia, San Juan, Rosario),
• Metro Manila,
• Bataan,
• the rest of Pampanga,
• the rest of Bulacan,
• the rest of Zambales,
• the southwestern portion of Cagayan (Enrile, Tuao, Solana, Tuguegarao City, Piat, Rizal),
• the rest of Isabela,
• the rest of Abra,
• the southern portion of Apayao (Conner, Kabugao),
• Kalinga,
• the rest of Mountain Province,
• the rest of Ilocos Sur, and
• the southern portion of Ilocos Norte (Pinili, City of Batac, Banna, Nueva Era, Badoc, Currimao, Marcos, Solsona, Dingras, Sarrat, Paoay, Laoag City, San Nicolas).

These areas may experience gale-force winds ranging 62 to 88 km/h in the next 24 hours, with wind impacts possibly resulting in minor to moderate threat to life and property.

TCWS No. 1, on the other hand, was raised over the following areas:

• the northern portion of Masbate (City of Masbate, Mobo, Aroroy, Baleno) including Ticao and Burias Islands,
• the rest of Marinduque,
• the northern portion of Romblon (Cajidiocan, San Fernando, Magdiwang, Romblon, Banton, Corcuera, Concepcion, San Andres, Calatrava, San Agustin),
• the northern portion of Oriental Mindoro (Puerto Galera, San Teodoro, Naujan, Baco, Victoria, Socorro, Pinamalayan, Gloria, Pola, City of Calapan),
• the northern portion of Occidental Mindoro (Sablayan, Santa Cruz, Mamburao, Abra de Ilog, Paluan) including Lubang Islands,
• the rest of Batangas,
• the rest of mainland Cagayan,
• the rest of Apayao, and
• the rest of Ilocos Norte.

Strong winds from 39 to 61 km/h may be expected in these areas within the next 36 hours. Wind impacts may result in minimal to minor threat to life and property.

The center of the eye of Pepito was last spotted at 7 a.m. over the coastal waters of Vinzons, Camarines Norte.

It has maximum sustained winds of 185 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 255 km/h, and central pressure of 925 hPa.

Pepito was moving northwestward at 15 km/h, with strong to typhoon-force winds extending outwards up to 300 km from the center.

Coastal waters

PAGASA said that there is a high risk of life-threatening storm surge with peak surge heights exceeding 3.0 m in the next 48 hours over the low-lying or exposed coastal localities of Ilocos Region (western coast), Isabela, Central Luzon, Metro Manila, Calabarzon, Marinduque, Bicol Region, Northern Samar, Samar, and Eastern Samar.

A gale warning was also hoisted over the eastern, western, and southern seaboards of Luzon and the eastern seaboard of Visayas.

Up to very rough, high, or very high seas are also expected over the following coastal waters:

• Up to 14.0 m: The northern and eastern seaboards of Polillo Islands; the seaboard of Aurora
• Up to 12.0 m: The seaboard of Camarines Norte
• Up to 9.0 m: The seaboard of northern Quezon
• Up to 8.0 m: The seaboard of Isabela
• Up to 7.0 m: The northern and eastern seaboards of Catanduanes; the northern seaboard of Camarines Sur
• Up to 5.0 m: The eastern seaboards of mainland Cagayan, Camarines Sur, and Albay; the remaining seaboards of Polillo Islands and Catanduanes
• Up to 4.5 m: The seaboards of Sorsogon and Northern Samar; the eastern seaboard of Eastern Samar; the remaining seaboards of Camarines Sur, Albay, and Quezon; the seaboards of Ilocos Region, Masbate including Burias and Ticao Islands, and Marinduque

With this, sea travel is risky for all types or tonnage of vessels, and all mariners must remain in port or seek shelter or safe harbor as soon as possible until winds and waves subside.

Track, intensity

Pepito is seen to move generally west northwestward over the waters north of Camarines Provinces and east of Quezon on Sunday morning.

It will then pass close or over Polillo Islands by late morning, before making landfall over northern Quezon or central or southern Aurora between noon and afternoon.

Afterwards, PAGASA said Pepito will cross the northern portion of Central Luzon and the southern portion of Northern Luzon along the upland areas of Sierra Madre, Caraballo, and Cordillera Central between this afternoon and evening.

Pepito will then emerge over the coastal waters of Pangasinan or La Union on Sunday night or early Monday morning.

Over the West Philippine Sea, Pepito will continue moving generally west northwestward on Monday.

It may exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by Monday morning or afternoon. Outside the PAR region, the tropical cyclone will turn more westward or west southwestward on Tuesday.

Heavy rainfall, severe winds, and storm surge may still be experienced in localities outside the landfall point and the forecast confidence cone. The track may also still shift within the limit of the forecast confidence cone, said PAGASA.

Pepito is expected to slightly weaken as a typhoon prior to its second landfall. Significant weakening will occur during the passage of this tropical cyclone over mainland Luzon within the day.

It may also weaken into a severe tropical storm over mainland Luzon, and further weakening over the West Philippine Sea is likely due to the incoming northeasterly wind surge.

Effects, preparations

Some flights for Sunday, Nov. 17, were canceled due to the bad weather caused by Pepito.

The Office of Civil Defense said it was preparing for a possible "worst-case scenario" amid the onslaught of Pepito.

Several local government units, such as those in Daet, Camarines Norte, and Quezon province, have implemented evacuations to minimize the impact of Pepito.

Meanwhile, four dams in Luzon, namely Ambuklao, Binga, San Roque, and Magat, opened a few of their gates on Sunday to release water ahead of the heavy rains expected today due to Pepito. —KG, GMA Integrated News