Ofel further intensifies; Man-Yi slightly intensifies, may enter PAR by Thursday

Typhoon Ofel further intensifies as it continues to move west northwestward over the sea east of Aurora while Tropical Storm Man-Yi slightly intensifies and may enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by Thursday, according to the latest Tropical Cyclone Bulletin posted by PAGASA.

The center of the eye of Typhoon Ofel was estimated at 355 kilometers east of Baler, Aurora or 295 km East of Casiguran, Aurora packing maximum sustained winds of 150 kilometers per hour near the center, gustiness of up to 185 kph, and central pressure of 960 hPa.

Ofel is moving west northwestward at the speed of 25 kph with strong to typhoon-force winds extend outwards up to 320 km from the center.

Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS) No. 3 is hoisted over the northeastern portion of mainland Cagayan (Santa Ana).

TCWS No. 2 is hoisted over the following areas:

• the southern portion of Batanes (Mahatao, Uyugan, Basco, Ivana, Sabtang)
• the rest of Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, the northern and eastern portions of Isabela (Maconacon, Divilacan, Palanan, San Pablo, Cabagan, Santa Maria, Santo Tomas, Tumauini, Ilagan City)
• Apayao
• the northern portion of Ilocos Norte (Carasi, Vintar, Burgos, Adams, Pagudpud, Bangui, Dumalneg)

TCWS No. 1 is hoisted over the following areas:

• the rest of Batanes
• the rest of Isabela
• Quirino
• the northern portion of Nueva Vizcaya (Kasibu, Ambaguio, Solano, Bayombong, Quezon, Bagabag, Diadi, Villaverde)
• Kalinga
• Abra
• Mountain Province
• Ifugao
• the rest of Ilocos Norte
• the northern portion of Ilocos Sur (Sinait, Cabugao, San Juan, San Ildefonso, Magsingal, Santo Domingo, Bantay, San Vicente, City of Vigan, Caoayan, Santa Catalina, Santa, Nagbukel, Narvacan)
• the northern portion of Aurora (Dilasag, Casiguran, Dinalungan, Dipaculao)

Heavy Rainfall Outlook

Heavy rainfall outlook due to Tropical Cyclone Ofel is expected on Wednesday evening or Thursday evening:

Intense to Torrential rainfall over Cagayan and Isabela

Heavy to Intense rainfall over Apayao and Kalinga

Moderate to Heavy rainfall over Batanes, Ilocos Norte, Abra, Mountain Province, Ifugao, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, and Aurora.

Severe Winds

There will be moderate to significant impacts from gale-force winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 3, minor to moderate impacts from strong winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 2 and inimal to minor impacts from strong winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 1.

Coastal Inundation

"There is a moderate to high risk of life-threatening storm surge with peak heights reaching 1.0 to 3.0 m in the next 48 hours over the low-lying or exposed coastal localities of Batanes, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Isabela, and northern Aurora," said PAGASA.

Hazards affecting coastal waters

A Gale Warning is hoisted over the northern and eastern seaboards of Northern Luzon and the eastern seaboard of Central Luzon.

The weather bureau warned that sea travel is risky for all types or tonnage of vessels and that all mariners must remain in port or, if underway, seek shelter or safe harbor as soon as possible until winds and waves subside.

Track and Intensity Outlook for Ofel

Ofel is forecast to move west northwestward to northwestward over the Philippine Sea before making landfall along the eastern coast of Cagayan or Isabela by Thursday afternoon and then emerge over Babuyan and Balintang Channels on Friday while making another landfall or passing close to Babuyan Islands, then turn northeastward on Saturday towards the sea east of Taiwan.

"It must also be emphasized that the track may still shift within the limit of the forecast confidence cone, especially the portion wherein Ofel will be moving northeastward," said the weather bureau.

Track and Intensity Outlook for Man-Yi

As of 10 p.m., the center of Tropical Storm Man-Yi was estimated at 1,705 kilometers east of Eastern Visayas outside PAR packing maximum sustained winds of 75 kilometers per hour near the center, gustiness of up to 90 kph, and central pressure of 998 hPa.

Man-Yi is moving west southwestward at the speed of 30 kph with strong to gale-force winds extend outwards up to 300 km from the center.

"Due to the high pressure area over the south of Japan, MAN-YI is forecast to move southwestward over the next 12 hours before turning generally westward while approaching the eastern boundary of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). MAN-YI may enter the PAR region by tomorrow (14 November) evening as “Pepito,” PAGASA reported. — BAP, GMA Integrated News