PAGASA: Delayed Amihan causes storms to enter northern part of PH

The absence of the Northeast Monsoon or Amihan caused tropical cyclones to enter the northern part of the country, PAGASA said in Nico Waje’s Tuesday report on "Saksi."

The tracks of tropical cyclones Leon, Marce, and Nika showed they passed through the northern part of the country.

Earlier today, Severe Tropical Storm Ofel entered the Philippine Area Responsibility (PAR) affecting northern Luzon as well.

PAGASA is also monitoring a low pressure area that will be called “Pepito” once it enters PAR.

“Yan po ay embedded sa tinatawag na Intertropical Convergence Zone. So, yung ITCZ ay series ng low pressure areas na nag oscillate yan north to south ng ating bansa. So ngayon, yan yung nagiging breeding place ng ating mga bagyo kaya nakita natin yung ating mga bagyo ay sunod-sunod,” said Analiza Solis, PAGASA chief of climate monitoring and prediction section.

(That is embedded in the so-called Intertropical Convergence Zone. So, the ITCZ is a series of low pressure areas that oscillate north to south of our country. So now, that becomes the breeding place of our typhoons, so we have seen our typhoons one after the other.)

According to PAGASA, the La Niña-like conditions cause intensified storms in the country.

“Yung La Niña kasi, ibig sabihin nun may unsual cooling dun sa malayo sa atin sa dagat Pasipiko pero may unsual waming dun sa dagat Pasipiko malapit sa atin kaya napapansin natin mas nagiging typhoon o super typhoon yung category yung mga bagyo dahil sobrang init ng temperatura ng dagat Pasipiko malapit sa atin so very favorable siya para mag intesnify itong mga bagyo natin,” Solis said.

(La Niña means that there is an unusual cooling in the Pacific Ocean far away from our country, but there is unusual warming in the Pacific Ocean close to us, so we notice that the storms are becoming typhoons or super typhoons because the temperature in the Pacific Ocean is near us so it is very favorable for our storms to intensify.)

The country experienced a similar scenario in November 2008, where four tropical cyclones entered PAR within a week, which affected the south side of the country.

The difference this year is that there is no Amihan.

“Kapag nagkaroon kasi tayo ng Amihan, eto yung magiging factor na magpapabago ng track ng bagyo na posible mas mababa siya kapag fully establish na yung hanging Amhian,” Solis said.

(Amihan will be a factor changing the track of tropical cyclones, which could possibly lower the chance of entering PAR once it is fully established.)

This is the longest delay of Amihan recorded by PAGASA since 2015.

“Galing tayo sa El Niño and then magkakaroon tayo ng La Niña and also may tinatawag na intra-seasonal variability so hindii lang natn tinitingan yung day-to-day weather,” Solis said.

(We come from El Niño and then we will have La Niña and also there is what is called intra-seasonal variability so we don't just look at the day-to-day weather.)

Despite the succeeding tropical cyclones, the trend is that the country will experience fewer storms entering PAR.

However, Solis said the number of tropical cyclones under the typhoon or super typhoon categories is increasing.

She added that the country may see one to two tropical cyclones entering PAR after “Pepito” before the year ends.—Mariel Celine Serquiña/LDF, GMA Integrated News