Signal No. 3 in 11 areas as Nika maintains strength; may make landfall soon

The number of areas under Storm Signal No. 3 increased from seven to 11 as Severe Tropical Storm Nika (international name: Toraji) maintained its strength over the sea east of Aurora province and may make landfall Monday morning, PAGASA said.

In its 2 a.m. tropical cyclone bulletin, the state weather bureau said that as of 1 a.m., Nika was estimated to be 190 km east of Baler, Aurora or 145 km east-southeast of Casiguran, Aurora, with maximum sustained winds of 110 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 135 km/h. The storm is moving west at 25 km/h, with strong to storm-force winds extending up to 340 km from the center.

Signal No. 3 has been raised over the following areas:

• The southern portion of Cagayan (Enrile, Solana, Tuao, Tuguegarao City)
• Isabela
• the northern portion of Quirino (Diffun, Cabarroguis, Aglipay, Maddela, Saguday)
• the northern portion of Nueva Vizcaya (Diadi, Bagabag, Quezon, Solano, Villaverde, Kasibu, Ambaguio, Bayombong)
• the southern portion of Apayao (Cervantes, Quirino, San Emilio)
• Abra
• Kalinga
• Mountain Province
• Ifugao
• the eastern portion of Ilocos Sur (Cervantes, Quirino, San Emilio)
• the northern portion of Aurora (Dilasag, Casiguran, Dinalungan)

Signal No. 2 has been hoisted over:

• Ilocos Norte
• the rest of Ilocos Sur
• La Union
• the northeastern portion of Pangasinan (San Nicolas, Natividad, San Quintin, Sison, San Manuel, Umingan, Tayug)
• the rest of Apayao
• Benguet
• the central portion of Cagayan (Iguig, Peñablanca, Baggao, Alcala, Amulung, Santo Niño, Rizal, Piat, Gattaran, Lasam, Santa Praxedes, Claveria, Sanchez-Mira, Pamplona, Abulug, Allacapan, Ballesteros, Lal-Lo, Aparri, Camalaniugan, Buguey, Santa Teresita, Gonzaga)
• the rest of Quirino
• the rest of Nueva Vizcaya
• the central portion of Aurora (Dipaculao, Maria Aurora, Baler)
• the northern portion of Nueva Ecija (Carranglan, Pantabangan, Lupao, San Jose City)

The following areas are under Signal No. 1:

• The rest of Cagayan including Babuyan Islands
• the rest of Pangasinan
• the rest of Aurora
• Tarlac
• the northern and central portions of Zambales (Santa Cruz, Candelaria, Masinloc, Palauig, Iba, Botolan, Cabangan, San Marcelino, San Felipe, San Narciso)
• the rest of  Nueva Ecija
• Pampanga
• Bulacan
• Metro Manila
• Rizal
• the eastern portion of Laguna (Santa Maria, Mabitac, Pakil, Pangil, Famy, Siniloan, Paete, Kalayaan, Cavinti, Lumban, Luisiana, Santa Cruz, Magdalena, Pagsanjan, Majayjay, Liliw, Nagcarlan, Pila, Victoria)
• the eastern portion of Quezon (Calauag, Guinayangan, Tagkawayan, Pitogo, Buenavista, Pagbilao, Infanta, Lopez, Unisan, Plaridel, Quezon, Alabat, Sampaloc, Padre Burgos, Macalelon, Mauban, Perez, Agdangan, Gumaca, Atimonan, Real, General Nakar, Lucban, City of Tayabas, Lucena City) including Polillo Islands
• Camarines Norte
• the northern portion of Camarines Sur (Siruma, Tinambac, Goa, Lagonoy, Caramoan, Cabusao, Sipocot, Garchitorena, Ragay, Magarao, Del Gallego, Calabanga, Bombon, San Jose, Presentacion, Lupi, Libmanan)
• the northern and central portions of Catanduanes (Pandan, Gigmoto, Bagamanoc, Panganiban, San Miguel, Viga, Caramoran, San Andres)

In an advisory, the Department of the Interior and Local Government (DILG) instructed governors and mayors in Regions I, II, III, IV-A, V, CAR and Metro Manila to "immediately suspend" classes at all levels, both public and private, in areas expected to be heavily affected by Nika. In the meantime, several provincial and local governments in these regions have already declared the suspension of classes for Monday.

The DILG has also ordered the evacuation of some 2,500 barangays in the Ilocos Region, Cagayan Valley, and the Cordillera Administrative Region.

And in Metro Manila, the MMDA has suspended the expanded number coding scheme for Monday. 

Possible landfall

Nika may make landfall over Isabela or northern Aurora this morning, and may also reach typhoon strength over the next 12 hours. 

PAGASA forecasts the storm to move west-northwest. After landfall, the storm is seen to cross the landmass of mainland Luzon and reach the sea west of Ilocos Sur by Monday evening. Nika is expected to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by Tuesday morning or afternoon.

Rainfall forecast

In a separate 2 a.m. weather advisory, PAGASA also said that for Monday, intense to torrential rainfall (more than 200 mm) is expected in Aurora, Isabela, Cagayan, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Ifugao, Mountain Province, Kalinga, and Apayao.

Heavy to intense (100 to 200 mm) is expected for Abra, Benguet, Ilocos Norte, and Ilocos Sur; and moderate to heavy (50 to 100 mm) rainfall is seen for Catanduanes, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Quezon, Nueva Ecija, Tarlac, La Union, and Pangasinan.

Gale warnings, storm surge risk

A gale warning has been raised over Luzon's eastern seaboard, with very rough or high seas possible over:

• The seaboards of Isabela and northern Aurora - up to 8.0 m
• The remaining seaboard of Aurora; the northern and eastern seaboards of Polillo Islands; the seaboard of Camarines Norte - up to 5.5 m
• The western seaboard of Ilocos Norte; the eastern seaboard of mainland Cagayan; the northern seaboards of Camarines Sur - up to 4.5 m  

Under these conditions, sea travel is risky for all types and tonnage of vessels, the weather bureau said. In these areas, "[a]ll mariners must remain in port or, if underway, seek shelter or safe harbor as soon as possible until winds and waves subside."

Rough seas are possible in:

• The seaboards of Catanduanes, mainland Cagayan, and  Ilocos Norte; the seaboard of Babuyan Islands - up to 4.0 m
• The seaboard of Batanes; the remaining seaboards of Ilocos Region - up to 3.5 m
• The eastern seaboards of mainland Quezon, Catanduanes, Albay, and Sorsogon; the northern seaboard of Northern Samar; the remaining seaboard of Polillo Islands - up to 3.0 m

Under these conditions, "Mariners of small seacraft, including all types of motorbancas, are advised not to venture out to sea under these conditions, especially if inexperienced or operating ill-equipped vessels," PAGASA said.

PAGASA also warns of a "moderate to high" risk of storm surge over the next 48 hours in coastal or low-lying localities in Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Isabela, Zambales, Aurora, Quezon including Polillo Islands, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, and Catanduanes. — BM, GMA Integrated News