PAGASA: 'High chance' LPA outside PAR will become tropical cyclone

As Severe Tropical Storm Kristine (international name: Trami) continued to pound Luzon with strong winds and heavy rains, weather bureau PAGASA warned on Thursday that the low pressure area east of Mindanao would likely develop into a tropical cyclone.

At 8 a.m., the LPA was located 2,295 kilometers east of northeastern Mindanao, or outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility.

PAGASA said the LPA has a ''high chance'' of developing into a tropical depression within the next 24 hours.

Once inside PAR, it will be referred to by its local name, "Leon."

PAGASA said its forecast model for October 31 to November 6 showed that the potential tropical cyclone would ''continue to move northwestward toward the eastern part of Northern Luzon before recurving toward Taiwan.''

“Asahan pa rin po natin 'yung mga paulan hindi lamang sa Northern Luzon kundi maging sa Central Luzon area,” PAGASA assistant weather services chief Chris Perez said in an interview on Balitanghali on Thursday.

(Let us expect rainfall not only in Northern Luzon but also in the Central Luzon area.)

An LPA east of Eastern Visayas is also being monitored by PAGASA; however, there is little chance that it would turn into a tropical depression within the next 24 hours. 

According to PAGASA, Kristine will head toward the West Philippine Sea and leave PAR on Friday.

'Looping'

''In the extended outlook, there is a developing forecast situation wherein Kristine will be looping over the West Philippine Sea on Sunday and Monday and move eastward or east northwestward towards the general direction of the PAR region,'' PAGASA said in its 2 p.m. tropical cyclone bulletin.

''However, this scenario heavily depends on the behavior of the weather disturbance east of the PAR region which is expected to develop into a tropical depression within the next 24 hours.''

“Kristine is forecast to re-intensify as it moves over the West Philippine Sea. While it is likely that the tropical cyclone will remain a severe tropical storm in the next five days, the chance for it to be upgraded into a typhoon is not ruled out,” PAGASA said. — with a report from Mariel Celine Serquiña/VBL, GMA Integrated News