PAGASA: High chance of La Niña onset between September and November

The state weather bureau on Tuesday said there is a high chance that the La Niña phenomenon in the country could begin between September and November.

”La Niña is favored to emerge in September, October, and November 2024. Anytime within the period with a 71% chance and ine-expect natin na magtutuloy ito hanggang sa (and we’re expecting it to persist until) first quarter of 2025 or during January, February, and March,” PAGASA weather specialist Joanne Mae Adelino said in a media conference on Tuesday.

In July, PAGASA raised a La Niña alert with a 70% chance that it could begin between August to October.

According to PAGASA, the La Niña phenomenon is when there is a cooling of the sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.

It occurs every two to three years and its duration usually lasts for one to three years.

Ana Liza Solis, PAGASA Assistant Weather Services Chief said the successive tropical cyclones in the county are the early signs of the impact of La Niña.

In September, Severe Tropical Storm Enteng entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) followed by Tropical Storm Ferdie, Tropical Depression Gener, Tropical Storm Helen, and Tropical Depression Igme.

Solis reiterated that a weak La Niña is expected to enter the country. However, she said not to underestimate it.

“Kailangan emphasize, historically, base sa mga datos ng PAGASA, kapag weak La Niña mas maraming nararanas na Super Typhoon na bagyo kapag September, October, November, December. So may dalawang similar condition na weak La Niña tayo pero nandoon yung tatlo hanggang apat na typhoon at super typhoon category,” Solis said.

(We need to emphasize that, historically, according to PAGASA data, there are more Super Typhoon category storms during a weak La Niña in September, October, November, and December. So we have two similar conditions where there is a weak La Niña but there are 3 to 4 storms that could fall under the typhoon and super typhoon category.

In an interview with GMA News Online, Solis said the two possible impacts of La Niña are intensified winds and more rainfall.

“Kapag may active na weather system so pwede siyang rain-bearing tropical cyclone, so hindi man malakas ang hangin, marami namang ulan o pwedeng Super Typhoon siya pero malakas pa rin siyang dalang ulan,” she said.

(An active weather system can be a rain-bearing tropical cyclone, so even if the wind is not strong, there is a lot of rain or it can be a Super Typhoon but still bring heavy rain.) —Mariel Celine Serquiña/RF, GMA Integrated News