4-7 tropical cyclones expected from October to December - PAGASA

Around four to seven tropical cyclones will enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) in the last three months of 2024, the state weather bureau PAGASA said on Tuesday.

The number of tropical cyclones expected between October and December is as follows:

• October: 2 to 3
• November: 1 or 2
• December: 1 or 2

Nine tropical cyclones have either formed inside or entered PAR this year.

Tropical cyclones usually traverse either Luzon or Visayas between October and December, PAGASA weather specialist Joanne Mae Adelino told a news conference in Quezon City.

PAGASA also said there is a 71% possibility that between September and November, La Niña—which is associated with more powerful tropical cyclones and above-average rainfall—will develop. La Niña is predicted to last until the first quarter of 2025.

From January to March 2025, up to three tropical cyclones may form inside or enter PAR, PAGASA said. —VBL, GMA Integrated News