'Butchoy' exits PAR, 'Carina' may intensify to typhoon — PAGASA

Tropical depression Butchoy, one of two tropical cyclones that sandwiched the country, has exited the Philippine area of responsibility, state weather bureau PAGASA said on Saturday morning.

The other weather disturbance, tropical depression Carina, was forecast to steadily intensify and reach tropical storm category within the next 12 to 24 hours. Starting Monday, the tropical cyclone will likely intensify further at a faster rate, eventually reaching typhoon category on Tuesday.

Carina has maintained strength as it moved west northwest over the Philippine Sea.

In its advisory, PAGASA said Butchoy's center was estimated at 565 kms. west of Iba, Zambales as of 10 a.m. Saturday.

Moving at west northwestward at 10 kph, Butchoy has maximum sustained winds of 55 kph near the center, and gusts of up to 70 kph.

Butchoy is unlikely to directly affect the country over the next three days, PAGASA said.

However, Butchoy and Carina are expected to enhance the Southwest Monsoon or Habagat, bringing moderate to heavy rains over the western portion of Luzon until Tuesday.

The enhanced Southwest Monsoon will bring gusty conditions over the following areas, especially in coastal and upland areas exposed to winds:

• Saturday and Sunday (21 July): Kalayaan Islands
• Monday (22 July): CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, Bicol region, Western Visayas, Zambales, Bataan, and Metro Manila

No wind signals were hoisted due to Butchoy and Carina as of PAGASA's 11 a.m. bulletin.

However, PAGASA has not ruled out raising Wind Signal warnings over extreme northern Luzon and eastern portions of northern Luzon amid Carina's continued presence.

In the next 24 hours, the Southwest Monsoon enhanced by Butchoy will bring slight to moderate seas (0.5-2.0 m) over the coastal waters of Ilocos Region, Zambales, Bataan, Occidental Mindoro, and the northern portion of Palawan including Calamian (west coast) and Kalayaan Islands.

Based on the forecast track, Butchoy will move generally west northwestward Saturday until Sunday before turning more north northwestward beginning Monday (July 22).

On the other hand, Carina is forecast to move generally northwestward until Sunday while gradually decelerating.

Carina will then turn generally northward on Monday before accelerating northward or north northwestward over the Philippine Sea towards the Ryukyu archipelago from Tuesday (23 July) onwards. It will generally have a mainly offshore path over the next five days and remain far from the Philippine landmass.

Heavy rainfall directly caused by Carina will remain less likely. PAGASA, however, said there may be changes in the current forecast scenario in the succeeding bulletins, which may affect the heavy rainfall outlook within the forecast period.

Sailors and passengers of motor bancas and similarly-sized vessels were advised to take precautionary measures while venturing out to sea. — VDV, GMA Integrated News